Hambletonian fair odds: Will Karl prove to be a superstar?
In many ways, Karl was born for this moment. Every Standardbred who hits the ground brings with them the dream to win the biggest race in the sport of harness racing, the Hambletonian, which goes as race no. 12 Saturday at the Meadowlands. Of course, only 99 horses in the history of the world can call themselves Hambletonian winners, with one edition a dead heat.
Karl carries with him that expectation and anticipation. His connections have made well clear that this race is the target, the kingmaker for Karl. Now, then, is the moment for Karl. This race is his opportunity to validate the faith from his connections, for words to be substantiated by raw determination and guts. Karl wants to be great? Karl will have to prove he’s great. And there’s no backing out.
And then the race draw. Karl, a horse who can leave but has been noted as one who is quirky and therefore a slight laggard off the gate, landed the pylon post. Drawing post no. 1, unless the horse shows something different on Saturday, nearly guarantees Karl will not get to the lead in the first turn. In most situations of this race’s unfolding, Karl will either have to make an aggressive quarter move and then bear whatever challenge comes next or have to make a first-over bid, which strained him early in the Stanley Dancer Memorial and resulted in an even third-place finish.
My fair odds, then, reflect what I feel is the middle ground between reality and speculation. With Yannick Gingras still finishing the Hambletonian elimination under wraps, speculation says Karl might in fact still have that “extra gear” that hasn’t been unleashed. Most of his starts this season support him having another second or two he can easily drop if given the right cue by Gingras. But reality also says this guy can get stymied by trip trouble, and no post guarantees him more trouble than post no. 1. Taking Karl at a short price, then, is not reasonable in the biggest contest the sport offers. He has lost a tinge of that invincibility he displayed previously, so then this race either logically or foolishly opens itself to other players.
Speed early in this race likely comes from T C I, Security Protected and possibly Private Access. T C I has given up on this whole “trying to rate” malarkey and is just trying to win races. His effort in his elimination depicted a whole different T C I than we’ve seen. David Miller later relayed that Ron Burke said of T C I, “We can fix him.” The colt had stomach problems and shoeing issues, and remedying that let the horse win in a lifetime best.
Security Protected appears a “shoot and pray” kind. He’s not the fastest in this race, but he’s showing that he can get good checks by sitting forward and chasing to hold on to whatever share remains. Plus from post 5, he stands a better chance in this race trying to leave than not, period.
Private Access sits in sort of a doom spot. Similarly, he’s not going to stand much chance in this race if he takes back to race ninth or 10th. And in his Hambletonian elimination, he showed the best foot off the wings and even forced T C I to fight for the win late in the mile. The question is whether driver James MacDonald will come to the same cost calculus I have given where the other entrants land on the gate.
Highland Kismet remains a big question mark. He got saved by the draw as any spot outside of post no. 5 probably would have killed his chances. But post no. 3 gives him the opportunity to not get away too far behind. And he was flying at the end of his mile in the elimination to take fourth, uncorking a 26.1-second quarter in what appeared a measured try to land into the final. Highland Kismet likely won’t get to go the same perfect kind of trip he went in the Goodtimes final, but he seems a type who could be dangerous if second or third over turning for home.
Sig Sauer is attracting a lot of wise-guy support. I mean, sure, he’s technically one of three horses to ever beat Karl, but then I don’t know why then Tony Adams S isn’t here. He finished second to Karl’s third in the Stanley Dancer. Sig Sauer does have a good late kick and, similar to Highland Kismet, he'd be productive if landing into a second- or third-over spot. Post no. 8 just makes his job tricky because he might have to change tactics and be more aggressive early or he might fail to find a seat and then be far back.
Bella’s Musclehill is an intriguing one too. He didn’t race as a 2-year-old, but he appears fast and tries every time he’s on the track. Others in this race can close faster than him, sure, but if Scott Zeron has him placed toward the middle of the pack then this guy can luck into a good trip here or there.
All of these other horses also have this date circled on their calendars. Destiny seemingly flirts with Karl in this Hambletonian, and the sheer law of probability has built a race where Karl can possibly quell the doubts. If Karl wins this Hambletonian, there will be no asterisk. There will be no discussions of how it was handed to him. He will have to throw punches the moment the gates unfold and claw his way into the harness racing record books. That seems to be what Karl was put on this planet to do, and now it’s either prove it or lose it.
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