HRN speed figures: Weekend top 10 & fastest maiden winners
Rhetorical made his big jump into Grade 1 competition a successful one Saturday. His victory in the Turf Mile at Keeneland stood out in Horse Racing Nation’s top 10 daily speed figures.
The 4-year-old gelding turned his first start in a non-restricted stakes into a 137 HRN figure, good enough for third-best Saturday. The son of Not This Time who is trained by Will Walden for owners Gary Barber, Cheyenne Stable and Wachtel Stable scored at 9-1 odds. Ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., Rhetorical collected his fourth straight win and his fifth from six career starts.
Keeneland: Rhetorical rallies to win Turf Mile.
Undefeated Rated by Merit led all performers with a 137 figure at Belmont at Aqueduct in the Discovery Stakes. The 3-year-old colt by Battalion Runner captured the one-mile dirt races at 1-5 odds. Now 5-for-5, Rated by Merit also stepped up to a non-restricted stakes for the first time.
Tamara, a 4-year-old filly by Bolt d’Oro out of Hall of Fame mare Beholder, earned a 137 at Santa Anita in the Chillingworth (G3). She won the 6 1/2-furlong dirt stakes at 2-5 odds by 3 3/4 lengths. This was her third career win from five starts.
Saturday’s top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | Rated by Merit | Battalion Runner | 3 c | BAQ 2 | 1 mi dirt |
| 137 | Tamara | Bolt d’Oro | 4 f | SA 2 | 6 1/2 f dirt |
| 130 | Rhetorical | Not This Time | 4 g | KEE 10 | 1 mi turf |
| 127 | Silawi | Dubawi | 5 g | WO 9 | 1 1/2 turf |
| 126 | Napoleon Solo | Liam’s Map | 2 c | BAQ 7 | 1 mi dirt |
| 124 | Local Knowledge | Yaupon | 2 c | KEE 2 | 6 f dirt |
| 123 | Ted Noffey | Into Mischief | 2 c | KEE 9 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 122 | Big Paradise | The Big Beast | 3 c | GP 4 | 6 f dirt |
| 122 | Breath Away | Bated Breath | 5 m | WO 8 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 121 | Praying | Vekoma | 3 f | KEE 7 | 6 f dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Local Knowledge posted the day’s highest maiden-winner figure with a 124 at Keeneland. The 2-year-old colt by Yaupon won a six-furlong dirt race at 5-2 odds in his debut. He is out of Chestnut Street, a Scat Daddy mare who earned $83,000, and his top sibling Ang N Ash has earned $209,000 and was Grade 3 placed.
Conducted earned a 118 HRN speed figure at Santa Anita in his third career start. The 2-year-old colt by Mendelssohn won a one-mile turf race at 2-1 odds by 6 1/4 lengths. His dam Marvelous Spot by Archarcharch earned $12,000, and his top sibling Explosive Lady has earned $64,000.
Heartily impressed with a 108 at Keeneland in his debut. The 2-year-old colt by Complexity captured a six-furlong dirt race at 4-5 odds by 6 1/2 lengths. His dam We Love Lucy by Majesticperfection earned $18,000, and his top sibling Reasoned Analysis has earned $222,000.
Saturday’s top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | Local Knowledge | Yaupon | 2 c | KEE 2 | 6 f dirt |
| 118 | Conducted | Mendelssohn | 2 c | SA 6 | 1 mi turf |
| 108 | Heartily | Complexity | 2 c | KEE 11 | 6 f dirt |
| 101 | Southern Melodee | Smokem | 2 g | SA 5 | 6 f dirt |
| 100 | Bold Time | Not This Time | 2 f | WO 3 | 1 1/16 syn |
| 100 | Sun Above | Optimizer | 2 g | LRL 5 | 1 mi turf |
| 96 | My World | Essential Quality | 2 c | BAQ 10 | 6 f dirt |
| 95 | Devilish One | Daredevil | 3 f | LRL 4 | 5 1/2 f dirt |
| 89 | Sheer Will | War of Will | 3 f | BAQ 1 | 6f dirt |
| 85 | Sobiech | Cloud Computing | 2 f | WO 1 | 6 1/2 f syn |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN’s proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners.
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners.
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners.
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.