HRN releases Kentucky Derby 2020 early morning line

Coming off dominant wins in the Travers (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Florida Derby (G1), Tiz the Law could end up being the lowest priced Derby favorite since Point Given (9-5) in 2001, and likely the lowest in 28 years when Arazi was a $0.90-1 favorite in 1992.

That's according to Horse Racing Nation co-founder Mark Midland, who on Wednesday listed early Kentucky Derby 2020 odds with Tiz the Law favored at 7-5.  The line includes the 19 horses whose connections have indicated they are probable to run in the Derby.

"There's just no knocks against Tiz the Law.  He's nearly perfect at 6 for 7, he's won by daylight in every race this year, and now with the Travers win he's won at the Kentucky Derby distance," said Midland, who in 1999 created Churchill Downs' Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

The main challenger to Tiz the Law is Art Collector, who is also perfect in four starts this year, including two wins at Churchill Downs.  But not only has Tiz the Law won at the Derby distance, but from a speed figure perspective, Tiz the Law has consistently run faster than Art Collector.

"If you look at speed figures, Tiz the Law has run faster than Art Collector and many players are going to lean heavily on speed figures when comparing these horses that have run in different races across the country," Midland said.

Related: Professional horseplayers: Bet the Derby favorite or not?

Tiz the Law earned a Beyer speed figure of 109 for his Travers victory, and a BRIS Speed Rating of 115 for the same race.  By comparison, Art Collector's best speed figures to date are a 103 Beyer speed figure for the Blue Grass and a 104 BRIS Speed Rating for that same race.

Honor A. P. is projected as the 6-1 third choice according to Midland.  "There is a large amount of support for Honor A. P. given his breeding, trainer and running style, " Midland noted.  "He's never been off the board in five starts and many people have been waiting all year to see him run at a mile-and-a-quarter." 

Below are the 19 horses listed with morning line odds.  Not listed is Rushie, who is still possible for the Derby, but he would have to be supplemented and entered for a total cost of $95,000.  Trainer Michael McCarthy indicated a "game time decision" would be made on Rushie.