HRN Saturday picks: Del Mar's Hollywood Derby and more
A holiday weekend packed with graded stakes continues Saturday, and we've sought out selections from our Horse Racing Nation network of contributors for their picks.
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Grade 3, $200,000 Discovery Stakes (3:50 p.m. ET at Aqueduct)
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96_)
Winner: #4 Senior Investment
On the board: #5 Bonus Points, #3 True Timber
Longshot I like: #2 Can You Diggit
Analysis: Returning to the dirt for the first time since the Belmont Stakes, Senior Investment is a must play in this race. The Lexington Stakes winner, who defeated West Coast, towers over this field and drops from the Grade 1 to Grade 3 level. The addition of Jose Ortiz is a huge bonus. Making his second start overall since the Belmont, he returns to his preferred surface on dirt after two off the board finishes on turf and tapeta.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #2 Can You Diggit has competed exclusively in state-bred races, however, results from a couple of them are good enough to take this.
On the board: #6 Control Group, sent out by leading trainer Rodriquez, is a speedy and consistent colt with 10 of 12 in-the-money finishes. #4 Senior Investment won a G3 in the springtime before going on to contest two-thirds of this year’s Triple Crown.
Longshot I like: Refer to top choice.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: Spieth
On the board: Can You Diggit
Longshot I like: Control Group
Analysis: I could see Spieth taking this wire to wire.
Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)
Winner: #6 Control Group
On the board: #1 Spieth, #5 Bonus Points
Longshot I like: #2 Can You Diggit
Analysis: Control Group has been an excellent $62.5k claim for Rodriguez. He fits on numbers and projects an outside tactical trip under Rosario. Can You Diggit was a nose behind my top choice last time and can rally for a share.
The Plays: #6 to win, Exacta 6/1-2-5, Exacta 1-2-5/6, Trifecta 1-6/1-2-5-6/1-2-5-6
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #6 Control Group
On the Board: #5 Bonus Points, #2 Can You Diggit
Longshot I like: #4 Senior Investment
Analysis: Control Group is the most consistent of the bunch, and he will have some decent speed to close into. Senior Investment has not won a race since the G3 Lexington over West Coast, but he has been running against much, much better horses. He has a chance to bounce back and should have a nice pace in which to close.
Grade 2, $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (5:56 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs)
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96_)
Winner: #11 Quip
On the board: #1 Gotta Go, #6 Enticed
Longshot I like: #9 Reride
Analysis: In two starts in his young career, Quip has been nothing short of spectacular. After winning his debut, Quip stumbled at the start in his second race, was very rank, and still won by six lengths. He comes into this race with the wind at his back and tons of potential. Quip's trainer, Rodolphe Brisset, a former assistant to Bill Mott who set out on his own earlier this year, is looking for his first graded stakes win. Quip has natural speed to go to the lead. When he breaks from the gate and gets good position, he's tough to pass.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #6 Enticed is a nicely bred Godolphin runner that won his debut in the slop before rallying nicely to finish third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last out. The second-place finisher from that affair went on to win Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
On the board: #11 Quip gave an eye-catching performance last time out in NW1x company, but now gets tested for class. #5 Givemeaminit sports an impressive resume for a maiden.
Longshot I like: #2 Diamond King has done everything right in his two sprint races, and will be dangerous if he handles the stretch out/class jump.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: Enticed
On the board: Tiz Mischief, Gotta Go
Longshot: Bravazo
Analysis: Medaglia D'Oro will get another Derby contender in Enticed, who is out of a multiple stakes-winning mare. Perfect spot for him to make his debut on the big stage.
Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)
Winner: #12 Tiz Mischief
On the board: #6 Enticed, #4 Arrival
Longshot I like: #14 Peppered
Analysis: Tiz Mischief is a sharp, fresh closer with a local bullet, and the Romans trainee has been targeting this race for quite some time. He gets pace to chase in the paper race.
The Plays: #12 to win, Exacta 12/4-6-14, Exacta 4-6-14/12, Trifecta 6-12/ALL/4-14
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #9 Reride
On the Board: #12 Tiz Mischief, #6 Enticed
Longshot I like: #10 Bravazo
Analysis: Reride is 2-for-2 and broke his maiden at Churchill Downs as the duo of Asmussen and Santana Jr. team up for another promising young horse. Bravazo has run against some good horses and has been in the money 3-of-4 starts. Could provide value in an evenly matched field.
Grade 1, $300,000 Hollywood Derby (6:30 p.m. ET at Del Mar)
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96_)
Winner: #9 Big Score
On the board: #4 Sharp Samurai, #7 Mo Town
Longshot I like: #3 Channel Maker
Analysis: Big Score has been as consistent as they come this year. While he only has one win, he has also only finished off the board once in six starts. With an outside post, and an expected fast pace, Big Score can stalk the leaders and pounce turning for home. Flavien Prat gets the call here, and big Score can get the biggest win of his career in the Hollywood Derby.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #4 Sharp Samurai is razor sharp right now having reeled off four straight stakes wins, including two graded events over the Del Mar green.
On the board: #3 Channel Maker won the third leg of Canada’s Triple Crown on turf and receives a favorable jockey switch to top turf rider, Javier Castellano. #2 Bowies Hero is 2-for-3 over this surface but has already been thwarted twice by the top choice.
Longshot I like: #6 Souper Tapit is a stakes winner (synthetic) that suffered significant trouble in his only two turf tries.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: Sharp Samurai
On the board: Big Score, Channel Maker
Longshot: Just Howard
Analysis: Sharp Samurai is the top turf 3-year-old in California and will extend his streak to five wins.
Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)
Winner: #7 Mo Town
On the board: #4 Sharp Samurai, #2 Bowies Hero
Longshot I like: #8 Just Howard
Analysis: Mo Town turned the corner in a facile optional claiming turf triumph at Belmont Park on Oct. 12, and the tactical type might be a stakes star in the making. Just Howard had his four-race win streak snapped in the Twilight Derby and did not show his usual positional speed in that event. He can bounce back.
The Plays: #7 to win, Exacta Box 4-7, Trifecta 4-7/ALL/2-8
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #4 Sharp Samurai
On the Board: #9 Big Score, #2 Bowies Hero
Longshot I like: #7 Mo Town
Analysis: The top three from the Del Mar Derby and the Twilight Derby are back, and I have them 1-2-3 once again. I like that Mo Town is finally on turf.