Gun Runner vs. Arrogate: We pick a Breeders' Cup favorite

There's not much separating Gun Runner (9-5) and Arrogate (2-1) on the Breeders' Cup morning line and, if a poll of Horse Racing Nation writers is any indication, that will remain true once wagering opens for Saturday’s race at Del Mar.

We gathered the opinions of 15 experts not necessarily on which horse they’re putting atop their tickets, but rather the contender they prefer when it comes to the head-to-head matchup.

Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)

I prefer Arrogate in the Classic because…I had my doubts earlier this month, but I believe he is as strong as he was a year ago and has shaken out of whatever mental funk he was in this summer. His last few works have been exceptional. His expression is fierce and, physically, his hind end really gets under him and he strides out big with his front. We know he can get the 10 furlongs, and he beat an equally sharp Gun Runner by open lengths already this year. 

Confidence level: 8/10

Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because… Upon his return to the States after finishing 2nd to Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup in March, the colt improved remarkably in three subsequent starts, which all occurred at nine-furlongs. Gun Runner hasn't won in three starts at 10 furlongs but hasn't disgraced himself either.

Confidence level: 5/10

Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…He has been a throwback horse, a model of consistency this year with the exception of getting run down by Arrogate in the World Cup. Also, it’s clear that Arrogate does not fancy the Del Mar surface. 

Confidence level: 6/10

Anthony Jaskulski, Across the Board (@anthonyjazz)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…He is running with surgical precision and has moved into a whole new class over the summer. This race truly has the punch of Frazier/Ali III, though Steve Asmussen won't have to yank Gun Runner like Eddie Futch did Frazier. Instead, the champ will finally be caught in round three. Down goes Arrogate! Down goes Arrogate!

Confidence level: 10/10

Jarrod Horak (@jchorak)

I prefer Arrogate in the Classic because…He is better at ten furlongs and has beaten his rival handily in their two previous meetings. That said, I am not picking either of the aforementioned two favorites on top.

Confidence level: 7/10

Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@writingcasey)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…He not only has a workout over the track, he has had time to adjust to his surroundings, whereas Arrogate is doing all his preparation at Santa Anita. We already know Arrogate doesn't like Del Mar's surface.

Confidence level: 10/10

Jonathan Lintner (@JonathanLintner)

I prefer Arrogate in the Classic because…He’s on a different level than the rest if he wants to race, and lately that has appeared the case. That’s not to mention Arrogate is the superior horse at 1 1/4 miles. All reports say the Del Mar surface should act like the Santa Anita dirt over which he has thrived.

Confidence level: 7/10

Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Cappercorner)

I prefer Arrogate in the Breeders' Cup Classic because…He has beaten Gun Runner twice already at 10 furlongs. Everyone talks about Arrogate not liking the Del Mar surface, but Gun Runner has never raced over it, so we have no way of knowing if he'll care for it either. Even the speed figure Arrogate received for his "ho-hum" runner-up performance in the Pacific Classic (when Collected got an uncontested easy lead) was just as fast as anything that Gun Runner has put up when sitting perfect trips at 9 furlongs.

Confidence level: 9/10

Olivia Newman, The Final Stride (@barbaroloverrr)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…He is vastly improving all the time. He’s training fantastic. Arrogate peaked last summer and has now plateaued. Arrogate will certainly give Gun Runner a run for his money, but I think Gun Runner is the horse to beat. 

Confidence level: 8/10

Christine Oser (@cb_oser)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…He is a very consistent colt who has continued to work well. He hasn’t beaten Arrogate yet, but Gun Runner will enter the Classic off three big, easy wins. Arrogate will have to prove he is back to his old self.

Confidence level: 6/10

Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch (@LauraDPugh)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…The son of Candy Ride is coming into this race in career-best form. He’s looked sensational while training over Santa Anita, and looked good in what was his lone work over the Del Mar surface. Arrogate, on the other hand, is coming into the race off two straight losses, both over the very surface that the Classic will be contested on. He’s looked good at Santa Anita, and if the Classic were held there I’d be singing a different tune, but it’s a DelMar, track that has proven to be Arrogate’s kryptonite. 

Confidence level: 8/10

Matt Shifman, NY State of Racing (@andyscoggin)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…He is a horse that has improved steadily and consistently throughout his career with basically no significant setbacks. Except for not liking a wet track, he has never run a bad race. A victory in the Classic will be the end result of a carefully planned and implemented 2017 campaign.

Confidence level: 9/10

Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast (@Florida_Filly)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because…I believe we're seeing a bigger, stronger version of the talented colt we saw last year. He's shown the ability to run well at any track, and he didn't regress upon returning from Dubai. I've followed him since he was a 2-year old, and I'm backing him 100%.

Confidence level: 10/10

Tony Bada Bing Inc. (tonycbadabing)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic…for the simple fact that Gun Runner has improved with each race this year and Arrogate has not. While Gun Runner has not won at 10 furlongs, he looks poised for a top effort. With Arrogate, I'm not sure if it's Del Mar's racing surface or the horse's lack of desire to win, but something is not quite right. 

Confidence level: 8/10

Jason Wood, The Paddock View (@thepaddockview)

I prefer Gun Runner in the Classic because...He has proven time and time again that he always brings his 'A' game on race day. Gun Runner was my 2016 Derby pick, and Florent Geroux has been one of my favorite riders for years, so why change now? 

Confidence level: 8/10