Gun Runner fair odds: Ohio-bred intrigues in Kentucky Derby prep

The Fair Grounds' first stop on the road to Kentucky Derby 2026 is an extremely competitive rendition of the Gun Runner Stakes on Saturday.

To wit, morning-line favorite Liberty National is 7-2, and there is a trio of co-second choices at 9-2 each. And to add even more excitement to the mix, the horse I am most excited about is the fifth choice at 5-1: the Ohio-bred Crown the Buckeye.

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Barring a lot of scratches from the eight-horse field, this year's Gun Runner figures to be the first of five editions without an odds-on favorite.

Don't feel compelled to take a short price here, but don't go looking for a long one either. All four winners were either the second or third choice and between 2.4-1 and 4.9-1 ($6.80 and $11.80) win mutuels. 

Crown the Buckeye is a bit outside the sweet spot odds-wise, but that's likely in part because of his connections, trainer Mike Maker and jockey Jareth Loveberry, who do not take as much money as trainers Brad Cox or Steve Asmussen in settings such as this. Plus Crown the Buckeye is shipping in from a stakes win against Ohio-breds at Mahoning Valley.

There are things to like about the Yaupon colt, for whom his collection of owners paid $250,000 at the OBS April 2-year-olds in training sale. For one, there's that sales price as one of the highest Ohio-bred horses at public auction ever. For two, Crown the Buckeye has shown versatility in winning a sprint stakes as a maiden going gate-to-wire then scoring from off the pace in his two-turn debut while handling his third track in as many starts.

That Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes victory earned a 104 Brisnet late-pace rating for closing into a pace Brisnet rated as extremely slow. I love betting 2-year-olds off a triple-digit late-pace rating.

Chip Honcho is the horse who scares me the most. He is 9-2 morning line and would be fine at that price, but I worry that the Asmussen-Paco Lopez combo off a maiden win as the favorite at Churchill Downs will attract money. Asmussen has won this race twice already, and Chip Honcho is by far the speed of the race. All four winners of the Gun Runner have been first or second throughout the entire running of the 1 1/16-mile race.

The morning-line favorite Liberty National would be the underlay of the field by far at anywhere near that price let alone as the favorite. The open-lengths win when stretching out in career start no. 2 certainly will attract attention, and the triple-digit Brisnet late-pace rating normally would attract mine. But I just think this one will be left with too much to do given his established style whereas our top pick Crown the Buckeye had enough speed to win a six-furlong stakes gate-to-wire.

From a multi-race wagering standpoint, I will stand with both Crown the Buckeye and Chip Honcho. Vertically, I will be prepared to play the longer price, and I'd be shocked if that is not Crown the Buckeye.