Gun Runner: Odds and analysis for final Derby prep of 2022

The $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at on Monday is Fair Grounds's first stop on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/16-mile contest drew a field of seven 2-year-olds. The top five eligible finishers will receive 10-4-3-2-1 Derby qualifying points.

The field of seven has two horses who previously earned Derby points and two stakes winners, one of which has a Grade 2 victory.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Gun Runner Stakes with Fair Grounds's morning-line odds. The Gun Runner is scheduled as race 11 of 13 on a card with nine stakes. Post time is set for 6 p.m. EsT.

1. Hayes Strike (7-2 – Connect – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 6: 1-1-1 - $129,482) Hayes Strike will make his third start on the Kentucky Derby trail after picking up five points from a fourth-place finish in the Iroquois (G3) and a recent third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Between those two stakes was a second in the Street Sense (G2). All three of those races were at Churchill Downs and were run with closing efforts from Hayes Strike. But his last victory was in August in an Ellis Park maiden race. Trainer Kenny McPeek is known to run his horses when they are in good form, and Hayes Strike will be making his seventh career start. Use underneath.

2. Jace’s Road (3-1 – Quality Road – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 3: 1-0-1 - $66,800) Jace’s Road brings three Derby points with him to the Fair Grounds for Brad Cox from a third-place finish in the Iroquois after pressing the pace. His next start in the Street Sense was fraught with trouble when he dumped his rider before the race and ran off, essentially losing all chance after finally getting loaded into the gate. Jace’s Road is a serious threat to win the Gun Runner if he gets back to the way he performed in his first two starts. Top choice.

3. Determinedly (7-2 – Cairo Prince– Mark Casse / Luis Saez – 6: 1-2-0 - $139,950) Determinedly is the second-leading money winner in the field yet he just broke his maiden after six starts. He easily beat a field of 12 by more than seven lengths at Churchill a month ago as the 6-5 favorite going seven furlongs on the main track. He built his earnings from three turf races in New York, including a fourth in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga. Like McPeek, Casse does not leave his horses in the barn for long when they are healthy and fit. Luis Saez travels from Florida for the mount. Win contender.

4. Old Alliance (10-1 – Hard Spun – Michael Stidham / Colby Hernandez – 2: 1-0-1 - $46,200) Old Alliance was a debut winner at Laurel Park in October with a front-end effort as the odds-on favorite. In his next start, he was third in an allowance at Keeneland behind Giant Mischief, who finished second inSaturday’s Remington Springboard Mile. Michael Stidham has his barn at Fair Grounds, and Old Alliance has three works over the track already, including a bullet five-furlong breeze. Live long shot.

5. Mazing Mark (10-1 – Mo Town – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas – 2: 2-0-0 - $69,550) Mazing Mark broke his maiden in his third start in the Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs with a closing effort and first-time Lasix. He made his first start on the turf at Kentucky Downs and then moved to the dirt at Keeneland. In a smaller field at Delta, Mazing Mark stayed closer to the pacesetters and then took control of the race in the stretch. Live long shot.

6. Raise Cain (8-1 – Violence – Ben Colebrook / Luan Macado – 3: 1-0-1 - $79,924) Raise Cain broke his maiden in his second start at Keeneland in October by more than five lengths and then was third in the Bowman Mile Stakes against a field of six going six furlongs. Toss.

7. Andthewinneris (7-2 – Oscar Performance – Watne Catalano / Corey Lanerie – 5: 2-0-2 - $292,243) Andthewinneris is the leading money winner in the Gun Runner. He broke his maiden at first asking on the grass at Keeneland in April after starting at the back and then circling the field to win by two lengths. In four subsequent stakes races, Andthewinner was third in the Bashford Manor on the dirt and the winner of the Bourbon (G2) on the turf in October at Keeneland. Last seen, he was seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and now he is back on the main track, where he posted a pair of breezes at Fair Grounds. Win contender.

Summary: The Gun Runner is an interesting race to handicap because there are only two stakes winners in a field that lacks any genuine early speed.

The leading money earner in the field is Andthewinneris. He is a Grade 2 winner, but that was on the turf. He is also stakes-placed in his only start on the dirt, which was in July.

Mark Casse’s Determinedly won a lot of money and finally broke through with a big maiden score in his sixth start. That makes this son of Cairo Prince look like a horse who will run late down that long stretch at Fair Grounds.

Based on all the trouble that Jace’s Road faced around the starting gate, it would be fair to draw a line through his poor performance in the Street Sense. The TimeformUS pace projector says that Jace’s Road will get loose on the lead based on his first two races. He established that he can handle the two-turn distance when he was third in the Iroquois. That makes Jace’s Road the top choice.