Gulfstream Park's Unbridled Stakes: Odds and analysis
Racing remains halted at many racetracks around the country, but Gulfstream Park is still going strong with a newly written 3-year-old stakes race lined up this weekend. The $75,000 Unbridled Stakes at 1 1/16 miles leads Saturday's card, and it drew an interesting field of seven horses, including familiar names from the Kentucky Derby trail.
But the race also contains an interesting Todd Pletcher entry who shows potential based on his two prior starts. He could take down the more experienced runners.
The Unbridled Stakes is carded as Race 9 with a post time of 4:53 p.m. ET. Here's a closer look at the field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.
1. Necker Island, 8-1 (Hard Spun – Stanley Hough/Dylan Davis – 5: 2-0-1): After some promising races last fall, including a nose win over Silver State in an allowance optional claimer on Nov. 30, Necker Island became exposed against better horses in the local Swale Stakes (G3) and Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. Despite some improvement in his TimeformUS figures, he ran a mild fifth in both of those graded stakes races. On the plus side, he faces an easier field here. His win over Silver State came over slop, and the forecast does call for a slight chance of rain. If the track is wet, upgrade him. But search elsewhere for the winner. Use underneath.
2. Americanus, 6-1 (War Front – Mark Hennig/Edgar Zayas – 4: 2-1-0): As with Necker Island, Americanus looks like a mild talent at best. Following a dismal eighth-place finish in the Nashua Stakes (G3), he ran a decent second to Premier Star in a local allowance optional claimer and then won an allowance on Feb. 22. The third-place horse, Silver Ratio, went on to finish a non-threatening fourth in a March 27 allowance optional claimer. As another red flag, Americanus lacks a single TimeformUS Speed Figure at 100 or higher. He also lacks two-turn route experience. Toss.
3. Dr Post, 3-1 (Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 1-0-0): This is an interesting runner from the Pletcher barn. In a local March 29 maiden race, he overcame a slow pace to mow down an uncontested leader in Nocturnal, who is also his stablemate. Watching the replay, Dr Post looked a bit green in the stretch. But when John Velazquez asked, he responded well enough given the slow pace. Dr Post also earned a 103 on TimeformUS for the win, adjusted down from a 108 because of the tepid fractions. One question left is whether he can route. He gets stamina from Quality Road, but the dam side is questionable given Mary Delaney competed as a stakes sprinter. Regardless, there is high potential based on his lone win. The pick.
4. Relentless Dancer, 8-1 (Midshipman – Michael Maker/Chris Landeros – 5: 2-0-0): After consecutive failures in two-turn routes, the connections are trying again with Relentless Dancer in another 1 1/16-mile race. In his first route attempt in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) he faded to fourth by 18 ¾ lengths. In fairness, he competed against Tiz the Law and Ete Indien, both talented horses with bright futures. Next, Relentless Dancer tried the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and faded to fourth again, this time by seven lengths after setting the early pace. He did earn a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Tampa Bay effort, but that sounds high for a horse who does not enjoy routing at this point. He could last longer in this spot against a weaker ungraded stakes field, but expect one of them to mow him down. Use underneath.
5. South Bend, 7/2 (Algorithms – Stanley Hough/Rajiv Maragh – 8: 3-1-2): If nothing else, at least this colt shows good experience at the distance. Two starts ago, he closed for a strong third in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) after settling nine lengths off a slow pace. The nice closing effort came on turf. However, South Bend also owns successful races on dirt given he won his first three career races on it last fall, including the one-mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. The fade to sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) is forgivable given the competition. With some pace, it is not hard to see this son of Algorithms closing strongly late. Win contender.
6. Soros, 12-1 (Commissioner – Gustavo Delgado/Emisael Jaramillo – 3: 1-1-0): In three starts, Soros has failed to break 90 on TimeformUS. He won the local Smooth Air Stakes last November, but it came against weak horses such as Genghis, Gangly, Gemo and the California Chrome sibling Fort McHenry who dips to claiming races this weekend. In his return start in a local March 27 allowance optional claimer, Soros could only manage to close for fifth, 7 ¼ lengths behind Money Moves. The gallop out was strong, but on paper, there is no reason to use him. Toss.
7. Attachment Rate, 5/2 (Hard Spun – Dale Romans/Luis Saez – 4: 1-1-1): This Romans trainee possesses a legitimate route pedigree with Hard Spun on top and an Afleet Alex mare named Aristra underneath. Aristra is a half-sister to Database and Vespers, both six-figure earners as routers in their careers. Attachment Rate could only manage third in the Gotham Stakes (G3), losing by two lengths to Mischevious Alex. He did encounter some trouble and still earned a 113 on TimeformUS. In the event rains, not Attachment Rate also broke his maiden by 6 ¼ lengths over the slop. Even with the high figure in the Gotham, though, those names from top to bottom look like mild horses at best. But then again, this is a weaker field. Win contender.
Conclusion: For the win spot, the race comes down to Dr Post, South Bend and Attachment Rate.
Dr Post gets the slight nod because of his high ceiling. In only his second career start, he turned in an unadjusted TimeformUS figure of 108 and overcame adversity because of the slow pace. He could develop into a nice horse.
Value-wise, the Pletcher name will bring Dr Post’s odds down. But the Unbridled contains enough known horses that the public will likely spread its money.
South Bend wins from an experience standpoint, while Attachment Rate’s pedigree is an A+ for stretching out. Use all three of them in the late Pick 4.