Guide to Saturday's two 2021 Kentucky Derby preps

A spot in the 2021 Kentucky Derby starting gates could be effectively sewn up Saturday in New Orleans.

Thirteen 3-year-olds are entered Saturday for the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Twelve are expected to go 1 1/8 miles at 7:18 p.m. EST, with 3-1 morning-line favorite Keepmeinmind staying at Oaklawn Park for next weekend’s Southwest Stakes (G3).

The Risen Star is the first 2021 Kentucky Derby prep to award points toward the first Saturday in May on a 50-20-10-5 basis. Fifty points has been enough to make the Derby field each year of the points era, which began in 2013, so the Risen Star is a de-facto win-and-you’re-in prep race.

With Grade 2 winner Keepmeinmind remaining in Arkansas, the shortest price on the morning line is Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun at 9-2. Jockey Florent Geroux will pilot the Into Mischief colt, who adds blinkers after taking the first loss of his three-race career when running third Jan. 16 in the local Lecomte Stakes (G3).

Midnight Bourbon, who took that Lecomte gate-to-wire, is 6-1 on the morning line for trainer Steve Asmussen. The second- and fourth-place finishers in that event, Proxy (8-1) and Santa Cruiser (15-1) are also entered for the Risen Star.

Senor Buscador (6-1) is an intriguing entry for trainer Todd Fincher. The Remington Springboard Mile Stakes winner did not earn any Kentucky Derby points for that Dec. 18 victory because he raced on the anti-bleeding medication Lasix. Senor Buscador will not compete with Lasix on Saturday, making him eligible for Derby points.

Here is a look at the 2021 Risen Star Stakes field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Starrininmydreams (Dallas Stewart, Brian Hernandez Jr.), 12-1

2. Proxy (Michael Stidham, John Velazquez), 8-1

3. Beep Beep (Norm Casse, Miguel Mena), 20-1

4. Carillo (Tom Amoss, James Graham), 15-1

5. Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher, Luis Quinonez), 6-1

6. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, Joe Talamo), 6-1

7. O Besos (Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza), 12-1

8. Sermononthemount (Tim Dixon, Declan Carroll), 50-1

9. Defeater (Tom Amoss, Diego Saenz), 12-1

10. Santa Cruiser (Keith Desormeaux, Adam Beschizza), 15-1

11. Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 9-2

*12. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen), 3-1*

13. Rightandjust (Shane Wilson, Mitchell Murrill), 15-1

*Note: Keepmeinmind will scratch and instead run Feb. 20 at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes (G3)

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Fair Grounds allowance winner Rightandjust going out to set a fast pace under jockey Mitchell Murrill, with Midnight Bourbon looking to repeat his front-running Lecomte score. Senor Buscador went from 10th to first in the Springboard Mile, so he has proven capable of winning with late rallies.

Check out HRN’s free past performances page for more information on both the Risen Star and Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

While a Kentucky Derby berth can likely be earned Saturday at Fair Grounds, Derby points and a spot in the Triple Crown’s second jewel are both on the line at Golden Gate Fields.

Nine 3-year-olds will contest the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, going 1 1/8 miles over an all-weather track. Post time is 7:37 p.m. EST from the Berkeley, Calif., track.

The El Camino Real offers Kentucky Derby points on a 10-4-2-1 basis. The race also awards its winner entrance into the Preakness Stakes, as long as that winning horse is Triple Crown-nominated.

Michael McCarthy trains 8-5 morning-line favorite Rombauer, who earned four Kentucky Derby points when running second Sept. 26 at Santa Anita in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1). Jockey Kyle Frey gets the call on the Twirling Candy colt, who makes his first start since running fifth Nov. 6 at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The 5-2 second choice is filly Javanica, who will look to become the first female runner to earn points on the 2021 Derby trail. Trained by Eoin Harty, the Godolphin homebred has run second in three prior stakes starts, most recently the Blue Norther on Dec. 31 at Santa Anita.

Petruchio (3-1) and Waspirant (8-1) both own two points apiece from prior Kentucky Derby preps. Those two are trained by Southern California conditioners Richard Mandella and John Shirreffs, respectively.

Here is a look at the 2021 El Camino Real Derby field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Positivity (Patrick Gallagher, Julien Couton), 12-1

2. Waspirant (John Shirreffs, Assael Espinoza), 8-1

3. Tesoro (O.J. Jauregui, Catalino Martinez), 20-1

4. It’s My House (Jamey Thomas, William Antongeorgi III), 20-1

5. Petruchio (Richard Mandella, Irving Orozco), 3-1

6. Play Chicken (Doug O’Neill, Evin Roman), 12-1

7. Javanica (Eoin Harty, Frank Alvarado), 5-2

8. Govenor’s Party (Daniel Franko, Cristobal Herrera), 50-1

9. Rombauer (Michael McCarthy, Kyle Frey), 8-5

TimeformUS’ pace projections show long shot It’s My House enjoying an uncontested lead under jockey William Antongeorgi III. Favorite Rombauer will most likely do his running late.

Derby preps on TV

TVG will have on-site coverage Saturday of both the Risen Star Stakes and El Camino Real Derby. Gabby Gaudet will report live from Fair Grounds, while fellow reporter Joaquin Jaime will bring coverage from Golden Gate Fields.

TVG’s Saturday schedule also includes stakes racing from Gulfstream Park, Laurel Park, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs.

FS2 will also broadcast the Risen Star as part of “America’s Day at the Races,” which airs from 2:30-7:30 p.m. NYRA paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale will provide on-site coverage of Saturday’s Fair Grounds card.

In addition to Fair Grounds, FS2 will air racing from Aqueduct and Tampa Bay.

Derby prep links

See the Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby points standings through 17 North American prep races.

Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is available to bet this weekend. Among individual betting interests who will race Saturday, Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon and Senor Buscador all opened at 30-1.

Looking for a deep dive into each Risen Star Stakes competitor? Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis go head-to-head picking the race, with both including Lecomte winner Midnight Bourbon in their trifectas but going elsewhere atop their tickets.

Proxy ran second to Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte (G3), but Reinier Macatangay notes that the winner enjoyed a perfect pace setup in that race. Proxy is Macatangay’s choice to turn the tables Saturday.

After finishing third in the Lecomte for trainer Brad Cox, Mandaloun tries again for a Derby trail victory in the Risen Star. Cox, the 2020 Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Trainer, provided Carolyn Greer with updates on standouts in his stable.

Trainer Todd Fincher had Kentucky Derby hopes dashed in 2018, when Runaway Ghost won the Sunland Derby (G3) only to suffer a training injury that kept him from running for the roses. Fincher, now on the Derby trail with Senor Buscador, talked to Steve Bortstein about the Springboard Mile winner, Lasix and the state of racing in the Southwest.

Trainer Dallas Stewart joins the Kentucky Winner’s Circle podcast this week to talk about Risen Star runner Starrininmydreams. The son of 2010 Kentucky Derby hero Super Saver is 2-for-2 and makes his stakes debut Saturday.

Former claimer Rightandjust competes in the Risen Star on Saturday after upsetting a Fair Grounds allowance race Jan. 16. Tom Pedulla spoke to 91-year-old owner Wayne T. Davis, who is taking a shot at the Kentucky Derby trail.

This week on HorseCenter, hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse preview Saturday’s Fair Grounds card. In addition to the Risen Star, the track hosts a Kentucky Oaks prep, the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).

In the years between Affirmed and American Pharoah, Risen Star was one of a number of 3-year-olds to win two legs of the Triple Crown but fall short of taking all three. Keeler Johnson looks back on the son of Secretariat, who rallied to victory in the Preakness and dominated the Belmont but settled for third in the Kentucky Derby.

Victor Ryan goes through the El Camino Real Derby field, finding runners to bet and those to toss. He lands on Petruchio, noting that a maiden win over turf “could signify an affinity for the synthetic” on which he will race Saturday.

Other Saturday stakes

Courtesy of the NTRA, here is a look at some of the other graded stakes taking place Saturday across the country.

2:34 p.m. EST – $100,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint (G3), Gulfstream Park, TVG

Leinster looms as a solid favorite in Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint on the strength of a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Keeneland last November. The Rusty Arnold trainee is set to make his 2021 debut in the five-furlong turf sprint for 4-year-olds and up. Leinster, a 6-year-old son of Majestic Warrior, finished a length behind victorious Glass Slippers and a half-length behind runner-up Wet Your Whistle in the 5½-furlong Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in his 2020 finale.

3:23 p.m. EST – $250,000 Barbara Fritchie Stakes (G3), Laurel Park, TVG

With few remaining gaps on Hello Beautiful’s resume, trainer Brittany Russell will seek to achieve a significant milestone for both herself and her stable star when they go up against seven rivals in Saturday’s Barbara Fritchie. A graded win would fill an important blank on an otherwise stellar ledger for Hello Beautiful, a Maryland-bred daughter of Golden Lad that has won five career stakes and takes a three-race win streak into the richest and most prestigious event of the winter meet. Sporting a perfect 7-0 record over Laurel’s main track, Hello Beautiful is 3-for-4 at seven furlongs including wins in the Maryland Million Nursery and Safely Kept last fall to cap her sophomore campaign.

3:53 p.m. EST – $250,000 General George Stakes (G3), Laurel Park, TVG

Grade 3 winner Majestic Dunhill, exiting a pair of disappointing efforts off a career-best performance, trades the South Florida sunshine for Maryland’s winter chill as he attempts to regain his winning form in the General George. Majestic Dunhill has placed in three stakes since, including the 2019 Polynesian at Laurel, and beat Share the Ride by a head to capture the Bold Ruler Stakes (G3) in the mud on Halloween at Belmont Park.

5:16 p.m. EST – $100,000 Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes (G3), Gulfstream Park, TVG

Multiple graded-stakes winner Mischevious Alex is expected to be a short-priced favorite to capture Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Sprint. Mischevious Alex, who is owned by Cash is King LLC and LC Racing LLC, joined trainer Saffie Joseph’s stable for his 2021 campaign after a productive 3-year-old season that included victories in the Swale Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream and the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. Making his first start since finishing sixth in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) last August at Saratoga, the son of Into Mischief made a sweeping move into the stretch and drew off to win by 3¾ lengths in a Jan. 10 optional claiming allowance race.

5:44 p.m. EST – $200,000 Mineshaft Stakes (G3), Fair Grounds, FS2 and TVG

Godolphin's unbeaten homebred Maxfield, who was forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2019 and the Kentucky Derby last year, starts as a prohibitive favorite in the Mineshaft at 1 1/16 miles, which should serve as a perfect launching pad for what his connections hope will finally be a season-long campaign. Trainer Brendan Walsh has had to endure some obvious disappointments with Maxfield as he’s started just four times in what is now his third season of racing. The son of Street Sense captured the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in 2019 but missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a minor foot injury and then got derailed off the Derby Trail last year when he came out of a June workout with a condylar fracture of his right front cannon bone.

6:16 p.m. EST – $150,000 Fair Grounds Stakes (G3), Fair Grounds, FS2 and TVG

Trainer Brad Cox is hoping a return to Cajun Country will inspire a return to form for Factor This, who figures to start as a solid favorite when he looks to defend his title in Saturday’s Fair Grounds Stakes over the Stall-Wilson Turf Course. Factor This started his rise to national prominence in last year’s Fair Grounds for Cox, as he set the pace and posted a surprise 8-1 win. He used that score as a springboard to another local tally in the meet’s turf highlight, the Muniz Memorial (G2), then followed that up with wins in Churchill Downs’ Wise Dan Stakes (G2) and then the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup at Ellis Park.

6:47 p.m. EST – $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), FS2 and TVG

The path to the Kentucky Oaks begins in earnest Saturday at Fair Grounds when Travel Column starts as what figures to be a strong favorite in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Travel Column announced her presence in the Golden Rod (G2) when she was sandwiched at the start, raced last of nine early, then got caught in traffic entering the far turn. She couldn’t get out until mid-stretch, then hit another gear in an instant and won going away.

7:20 p.m. EST – $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes (G2), TVG

A longshot winner of the opening day La Brea Stakes (G1), trainer Eoin Harty’s Fair Maiden will seek to validate that victory as she heads a solid field of 12 older fillies and mares going seven furlongs in Saturday’s Santa Monica Stakes. Dismissed at 20-1 in the La Brea, Fair Maiden rallied for an emphatic 2¼-length win, as a pair of Bob Baffert fillies, Golden Principal and Merneith, ran second and third. She will have to again contend with those two plus yet another Baffert runner, Qahira, who will be making her first Grade 1 appearance Saturday.