Guide to Saturday's trio of 2021 Kentucky Derby preps

Three major prep races Saturday will play significant roles in shaping the 2021 Kentucky Derby starting field.

The $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) and $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct all are scheduled for their 2021 editions Saturday. The trio of races take place at 1 1/8 miles and award Road to the Kentucky Derby points on a 100-40-20-10 basis.

Hot Rod Charlie, Known Agenda, Like the King and Rebel’s Romance all won 170-point Derby preps over the last two weekends. A trio of 3-year-olds can join that group Saturday by winning the day’s three prep races, while other board hitters can secure spots in the Churchill Downs field for May 1.

Following Saturday’s action, only two points-paying prep races will remain on the schedule, both for April 10: Oaklawn Park’s $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1, 100-40-20-10) and Keeneland’s $200,000 Lexington Stakes (G3, 20-8-4-2).

Here is a look at the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial. For more information on all three races, check out HRN’s free past performances page.

Wood Memorial, 5:58 p.m. EDT, NBCSN

Chad Brown, four-time Eclipse Award winner as North America’s top trainer, is chasing his first Kentucky Derby triumph. He starts a pair of Derby hopefuls in New York’s biggest prep race.

Risk Taking is a 5-2 morning-line favorite for Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. The Klaravich Stables runner broke his maiden going 1 1/8 miles in December at Aqueduct, then won the Withers Stakes (G3) over the same course and distance in February.

Rather than run Risk Taking at a mile last month in Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes (G3), Brown elected to wait for the nine-furlong Wood Memorial. The Medaglia d’Oro colt closed at 30-1 odds Sunday in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Brown’s other Wood starter is Crowded Trade (4-1), another Klaravich runner who was second in the Gotham. The son of More Than Ready will race Saturday for only the third time in his career.

The 3-1 second choice on the morning line is Prevalence, a Godolphin homebred who is 2-for-2 since debuting in January at Gulfstream Park. He makes his stakes debut in the Wood Memorial for trainer Brendan Walsh.

Gotham hero Weyburn (9-2) runs Saturday after connections made him a late Triple Crown nominee. Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Brooklyn Strong (6-1) makes his 2021 debut in the Wood, while Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) victor Candy Man Rocket (12-1) aims to rebound from an 11th-place showing in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

The Wood Memorial returns in 2021 after its 2020 edition was canceled due to COVID. The last Wood winner to then take the Kentucky Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.

Here is a look at the 2021 Wood Memorial field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Brooklyn Strong (Daniel Velazquez, Manny Franco), 6-1

2. Crowded Trade (Chad Brown, Eric Cancel), 4-1

3. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche), 30-1

4. Risk Taking (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 5-2

5. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz), 12-1

6. Prevalence (Brendan Walsh, Tyler Gaffalione), 3-1

7. Candy Man Rocket (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado), 12-1

8. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, Trevor McCarthy), 9-2

9. Market Maven (Penny Pearce, Dexter Haddock), 30-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Candy Man Rocket going out to the lead under jockey Junior Alvarado, followed by Weyburn. Favorite Risk Taking is expected to come from the very back of the field.

Blue Grass Stakes, 6:35 p.m. EDT, NBCSN and TVG

Essential Quality closed Sunday as the 4-1 favorite in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The Tapit colt can further his case for Derby favoritism Saturday while running over a course where he has already scored a pair of Grade 1 wins.

The Godolphin homebred won as the favorite last October in the Breeders’ Futurity, then came back over the same course to take the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He returns to Keeneland as the 3-5 morning-line favorite seeking a third graded win over the course.

The Blue Grass marks Essential Quality’s second start of 2021, following a Southwest Stakes (G3) score in February at Oaklawn Park. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Luis Saez are both chasing a first Kentucky Derby triumph this spring with last year’s champion 2-year-old.

Another Keeneland stakes winner, Highly Motivated, is the 3-1 second choice for Brown. After finishing third as even-money favorite last month in Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes (G3), Highly Motivated has shipped to Kentucky rather than staying in New York for the Wood Memorial.

The only other starter with single-digit morning-line odds is Keepmeinmind (8-1) for trainer Robertino Diodoro. November’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner ran a disappointing sixth last month at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes (G2).

Three other Blue Grass entrants – Rombauer (15-1), Hush of a Storm (15-1) and Sittin On Go (30-1) – have won Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby events. Untreated (10-1) was a dominant second-out winner last month on the Tampa Bay Derby undercard.

No Blue Grass Stakes victor since Strike the Gold in 1991 has gone an hour west to Churchill Downs and won the Kentucky Derby. Can Saturday’s winner snap that 30-year drought?

Here is a look at the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver, Rafael Bejarano), 20-1

2. Untreated (Todd Pletcher, Joel Rosario), 10-1

3. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano), 3-1

4. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Luis Saez), 3-5

5. Rombauer (Michael McCarthy, Florent Geroux), 15-1

6. Leblon (Paulo Lobo, Albin Jimenez), 50-1

7. Hush of a Storm (Bill Morey, Santiago Gonzalez), 15-1

8. Sittin On Go (Dale Romans, Corey Lanerie), 30-1

9. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen), 8-1

In a race lacking many need-the-lead types, TimeformUS’ pace projections show Highly Motivated and jockey Javier Castellano gaining a narrow early edge over Essential Quality.

Santa Anita Derby, 7:15 p.m. EDT, NBCSN and TVG

The Santa Anita Derby picture changed March 20 when San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Life Is Good exited a workout with an injury. The early Kentucky Derby favorite underwent ankle surgery that trainer Bob Baffert described as “minor,” but the injury’s timing knocked the colt off the Derby trail.

Even with Life Is Good on the shelf, Baffert still has a strong hand as he pursues his 10th Santa Anita Derby triumph.

Baffert trains 5-2 morning-line favorite Medina Spirit, winner of January’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. The Protonico colt was second to Life Is Good in his other two local graded stakes starts, the Sham Stakes (G3) and San Felipe.

Medina Spirit worked a bullet five furlongs March 22 in 59 seconds and retains the services of jockey John Velazquez for the Santa Anita Derby.

Baffert also sends out Defunded (8-1), who won a local maiden race on the San Felipe card after a layoff of more than six months.

San Felipe third- and fifth-place finishers Dream Shake (7-2) and The Great One (8-1) return for the Santa Anita Derby. Fourth-place finisher Roman Centurian is entered but will be scratched after trainer Simon Callaghan said the colt showed a lack of energy during a Friday morning gallop.

Over the last decade, three Santa Anita Derby heroes have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (’14) and Justify (’18). 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic was second in the Santa Anita Derby behind Honor A. P.

Here is a look at the 2021 Santa Anita Derby field (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Juan Hernandez), SCR

2. Dream Shake (Peter Eurton, Flavien Prat), 7-2

3. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Umberto Rispoli), 4-1

4. Parnelli (John Shirreffs, Edwin Maldonado), 20-1

5. Back Ring Luck (John Sadler, Tyler Baze), 20-1

6. Ottothelegend (Steve Asmussen, Mario Gutierrez), 12-1

7. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, John Velazquez), 5-2

8. Law Professor (Michael McCarthy, Kent Desormeaux), 10-1

9. The Great One (Doug O’Neill, Abel Cedillo), 8-1

10. Defunded (Bob Baffert, Mike Smith), 8-1

TimeformUS’ pace projections show Velazquez getting favorite Medina Sprit out front early, chased by long shot Parnelli, who adds blinkers.

Derby prep links

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis go head-to-head and provide full-field analysis for the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes. Both handicappers like Essential Quality to stay unbeaten but think big prices can fill out the board.

Ross and Tamulonis also go head-to-head handicapping the Santa Anita Derby. They both land on favorite Medina Spirit.

Reinier Macatangay handicaps the Wood Memorial, saying it offers the best betting value of the weekend’s three Kentucky Derby preps. He finds important flaws with both the top betting choices.

Macatangay also details which three 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders are ready to post standout performances Saturday.

This week on HorseCenter, hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse preview the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial. The duo also recaps last weekend’s Kentucky Derby trail action.

John Sadler has a pair of Santa Anita Derby starters in Back Ring Luck and Rock Your World. The trainer spoke to Ron Flatter about some of the other stakes runners in his barn.

Powerhouse Thoroughbred operation Godolphin could have three 2021 Kentucky Derby starters. Godolphin USA president Jimmy Bell spoke to NYRA’s Press Office about Wood Memorial starter Prevalence.

Trainer Robertino Diodoro told Keeneland’s communications team that Keepmeinmind’s prior success at the Lexington, Ky. oval is a key reason he chose the Blue Grass Stakes over next Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.

With less than one month until the 2021 Kentucky Derby, Padraic Manocchio combs through two different sets of speed figures to find the fastest Derby contenders.

There are no shortage of Santa Anita Derby heroes who have gone on to legendary racing careers. J. Keeler Johnson ranks the race’s five greatest winners.

Other Saturday stakes

Courtesy of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, here is a look at some of the other stakes taking place Saturday across the U.S.

2:21 p.m. EDT – $200,000 Bay Shore Stakes (G3), Aqueduct, FS2 and TVG

A compact but competitive field of 3-year-old dirt sprinters has assembled for the Bay Shore at seven furlongs led by Florida shipper Drain the Clock, who enters off a runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. While the temptation for most connections would be to forge ahead on the Kentucky Derby trail after picking up 20 qualifying points in the Fountain of Youth, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. and the ownership group have elected to focus on shorter races with their talented sophomore. Drain the Clock has four wins in dirt dashes, including a pair of open-length tallies at Gulfstream during its recent Championship Meet.

3:25 p.m. EDT – $300,000 Carter Handicap (G1), FS2 and TVG

Cash is King and LC Racing’s Mischevious Alex will look to break through at the highest level in Saturday’s Carter Handicap, a seven-furlong sprint for older horses. Mischevious Alex, a 4-year-old Into Mischief colt trained by Joseph, won the one-turn mile Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct and seven-furlong Swale Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park last year for former conditioner John Servis. The versatile dark bay is perfect in two starts since joining the Joseph stable, including a prominent score in the Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3) on Feb. 13 last out traveling six furlongs on a fast track.

3:51 p.m. EDT – $200,000 Appalachian Stakes (G2), Keeneland, TVG

Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables and Bethlehem Stables’ Plum Ali, last seen at Keeneland finishing fifth as the second choice in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, tops a field of six 3-year-old fillies entered for the 33rd running of the Appalachian Stakes going a mile on the turf. Trained by Christophe Clement, Plum Ali won her first three starts, including the Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs and the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) at Belmont, prior to the Breeders’ Cup.

4:24 p.m. EDT – $200,000 Commonwealth Stakes (G3), Keeneland, TVG

Something Special Racing’s Grade 1 winner Hog Creek Hustle heads a field of seven 4-year-olds and up entered for the 34^th running of the Commonwealth Stakes at seven furlongs on the main track. Trained by Vickie Foley, Hog Creek Hustle took the Woody Stephens (G1) in 2019 and has started in the past two runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Corey Lanerie has the mount and will break from post seven.

4:31 p.m. EDT – $150,000 Excelsior Stakes (G3), Aqueduct, FS2 and TVG

Coming off a pair of stakes wins on the local strip, the venerable New York-bred Mr. Buff will look to finally break through in a graded stakes race Saturday when he lines up against six rivals in the nine-furlong Excelsior for 4-year-olds and up. Mr. Buff, who has already secured millionaire status, has 17 wins to his credit, 11 of them in stakes races, but has been unable to seal the deal in a graded race in five attempts. Despite his graded woes, the 7-year-old son of Friend Or Foe has compiled an imposing resume. His ledger at Aqueduct features 10 wins and earnings in excess of $600,000.

4:57 p.m. EDT – $200,000 Shakertown Stakes (G2), Keeneland, TVG

Wesley Ward’s Bound for Nowhere and Breeze Easy’s Imprimis, respective winners of the 2018 and 2019 runnings of the Shakertown, headline a field of 13 3-year-olds and up entered for Saturday’s 25^th edition of the $200,000 race going 5½ furlongs on the grass. Also trained by Ward, Bound for Nowhere was caught late in the past two runnings of the Shakertown, finishing a neck behind Imprimis in 2019 when running second, and a neck behind Leinster and Totally Boss in last year’s running that was his most recent start.

5:09 p.m. EDT – $250,000 Gazelle Stakes (G3), Aqueduct, FS2 and TVG

Trainer Chad Brown will send out a pair of stakes winners who are looking to take the next step up against graded company, with the duo competing as part of an eight-horse field in Saturday’s Gazelle, which offers 100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the top-four finishers to the Kentucky Oaks. Brown enters the respective first and third-place finishers from the Busher Invitational on March 6, saddling Klaravich Stables’ Search Results and Louis Lazzinnaro’s The Grass Is Blue. Search Results, unraced as a juvenile, improved to 2-for-2 in her career with a half-length score over Miss Brazil in the Busher, contested over a one-turn mile on an Aqueduct fast track.

5:14 p.m. EDT – $100,000 Providencia Stakes (G3), Santa Anita, TVG

Sensational in her two previous stateside starts, Phil D’Amato’s Going Global heads a field of seven sophomore fillies going a 1 1/8 miles on turf in the Providencia Stakes. Ridden by Flavien Prat in both local starts, Going Global surged late in her U.S. debut, the Sweet Life Stakes (G3) on Feb. 14. In her first try around two turns, Going Global was off as the even money favorite in the one-mile turf China Doll Stakes on March 6 and she did not disappoint as she unfurled an explosive stretch rally en route to a 3/4-length score.

5:30 p.m. EDT – $400,000 Ashland Stakes (G1), Keeneland, TVG

Undefeated Malathaat and Simply Ravishing headline a field of six 3-year-old fillies for Saturday’s 84th running of the Ashland Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Favored at 9-5 on the morning line is Malathaat, who is making her 2021 debut. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Malathaat closed her 2020 campaign with a victory in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct. Trained by two-time race winner Kenny McPeek, Simply Ravishing romped to a 6¼-length victory in last fall’s Alcibiades Stakes (G1) before finishing a troubled fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

5:48 p.m. EDT – $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks (G2), Santa Anita, TVG

Separated by a head when last they met March 7, Bob Baffert’s Beautiful Gift and Michael McCarthy’s Moraz will square off again as they head a field of five sophomore fillies in the Santa Anita Oaks, which offers 100 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points to the winner. Beautiful Gift broke her maiden two starts back Oct. 23 at a flat mile and then rallied to nail Moraz on the money in the Santa Ysabel (G3) on March 7.

6:02 p.m. EDT – $300,000 Madison Stakes (G1), Keeneland, TVG

Lothenbach Stables’ Bell’s the One, winner of the Derby City Distaff (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, headlines a field of seven fillies and mares entered for the Madison going seven furlongs on the main track. Trained by Neil Pessin, Bell’s the One will be making her 2021 debut in the Madison. Winner of the 2019 Raven Run Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, Bell’s the One will be ridden by Corey Lanerie and break from post position four.

6:54 p.m. EDT – $600,000 Fantasy Stakes (G3), Oaklawn Park, TVG

Pauline’s Pearl and Sun Path ran 2-3, respectively, in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) on March 6 and the two meet again in the Fantasy Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Pauline’s Pearl is out of Grade 1 winner Hot Dixie Chick and broke her maiden at third asking at Fair Grounds on Feb. 12.

7:46 p.m. EDT – $200,000 Royal Heroine Stakes (G2), Santa Anita, TVG

Fresh off of a pair of dominating turf wins, trainer Phil D’Amato’s Charmaine’s Mia heads a solid field of eight older fillies and mares going one mile on turf in the Royal Heroine Stakes. Previously headquartered at Woodbine Racetrack, Charmaine’s Mia, in her first start for D’Amato was a rousing 2½-length winner of the Las Cienegas Stakes (G3) going six furlongs on turf Jan. 9 while dismissed at odds of 16-1.