Gotham fair odds: See which of Cox's quartet is the best bet

The maiden race at Gulfstream Park that featured Grade 2 Fountain of Youth entrants Speak Easy and Victory Avenue is not the only key maiden race from Jan. 27 expected to have a say in this week's Kentucky Derby prep race action.

While Speak Easy and Victory Avenue, the one-two finishers, respectively, on debut last month will certainly have their backers in the Fountain of Youth, neither will be favored like another Jan. 27 debut winner might be.

A few hours after Speak Easy and Victory Avenue threw down at Gulfstream, Just a Touch easily dispatched of seven rivals when 1-2 on debut going six furlongs in the slop at Fair Grounds Race Course. That was good for a 97 Brisnet Speed Rating, fastest of any three-year-old in the Gotham Stakes (G3) on Saturday at Aqueduct. Even more importantly for handicapping this race, the pace ratings indicate that the Brad Cox-trained Justify colt should have no issue controlling this group either.

As always, the price is the rub. Just a Touch is the 5-2 favorite on the morning but 3-1 on my fair odds. The joint second choice on the morning line is my clear second choice on fair odds, the Cox-trained Winkfield Stakes winner Bergen. It's conceivable one of these two actually ends up offering value, but it's also possible neither does. There is enough potential for pace that Bergen figures to benefit most if things get spicy with Just a Touch on the front end.

The Gotham is the last of ten races on the Aqueduct card. I would be comfortable using both Bergen and Just a Touch in multi-race wagers that do not rely on favorites in the other legs. If things seem logical leading up to this point, then no. 1 Khanate could be worth sprinkling underneath at a big number. He cuts back to a one-turn mile and moves inside off a Withers performance that was not awful at 42.5-1 odds.