Gotham fair odds: Betting on Iron Honor's coming-out party

Being by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a dam whose sire, Blame, won the Breeders' Cup Classic, Iron Honor has the type of pedigree not associated with sprinting, and yet the Chad Brown trainee won his career debut, earned superlative performance figures in doing so, and beat two next-out winners.

It is that type of performance by a 2-year-old male that immediately puts a Kentucky Derby context around anything he does going forward. Problem is, Iron Honor has not done much going forward besides work six times for Brown at Payson Park in Florida.

That all changes on Saturday in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes as Iron Honor ships north for his first try at a Kentucky Derby points race. With just nine weeks until the first Saturday in May, time is short for a colt with no points. But I have little concern gambling on this horse to improve stretching out to a one-turn mile, and Brown seems to have a plan in place to keep moving along to 1 1/8 miles and two turns next out, with the Kentucky Derby the ultimate goal.

I saw Iron Honor's biggest threat being Creole Chrome, but he will be scratched, according to David Grening of Daily Racing Form. So this is a rare instance of even money being value on a horse. Iron Honor is a stone-cold single for me in this spot.

The long shot I'm most interested in is Hammond, who chased home his stablemate in the Swale. He was no match Solitude Dude, who goes in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Saturday at Gulfstream, but this field might be more to his liking. Crown the Buckeye is a little interesting as he cuts back after setting two blistering paces in this winter's Fair Grounds preps.

Balboa is the fade, assuming he takes money. He's similar to Crown the Buckeye, and we'll get a much higher price on Crown the Buckeye than we will Balboa. But Hammond as fourth choice or greater is definitely the exotics key with Iron Honor.