Gotham Stakes: Odds, analysis for Kentucky Derby prep
Saturday’s Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes drew a field of nine 3-year-olds who will run the one-turn mile. The Gotham is the fifth of six stops on the New York road to Kentucky Derby 2026 and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the top five finishers.
Only two horses in the Gotham field have experience on the Kentucky Derby trail, and they have 12 qualifying points between them. Four of the 3-year-olds are stakes winners, and the field includes one New York-bred, one Louisiana-bred and one Ohio-bred.
Here is the full-field analysis for the Gotham with morning line odds by Brian Zipse from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Gotham is scheduled as race 10 of 10 with post time set for 5:18 p.m. EST.
1. Balboa, 5-1. Not This Time – Brittany Russell / Sheldon Russell – 7: 2-1-2 - $189,600. Balboa brings seven races of experience to his fourth start on the Kentucky Derby trail. As a 2-year-old he was fifth in the American Pharoah (G1) when he was part of the Bob Baffert barn and third in the Remsen (G2) after he moved to Brittany Russell. Last seen, Balboa was second in the Jerome, and he earned 9 Derby points from those three races. He won the J. F. Lewis III at Laurel in November to become one of the four stakes winners in the field. Use underneath.
2. Hammond, 8-1. Charlatan– Saffie Joseph Jr. / Jaime Rodriguez – 4: 2-0-1 - $84,250. Hammond will make his first start on the Derby trail as he travels north after four races at Gulfstream Park. He broke his maiden in his second start at the Florida track on Nov. 22 and then won the Juvenile Sprint. Hammond will try a mile distance for the first time in the Gotham after running third in the seven-furlong Swale. Win contender.
3. Crown the Buckeye, 6-1. Yaupon – Michael Maker / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 2-1-1 - $148,500. Crown the Buckeye is an Ohio-bred as his name suggests and began his career against state-breds at Ohio tracks where, he won a pair of stakes. He moved on to the Derby trail at Fair Grounds, where he set the pace both times. In the Gun Runner he held on for third to earn 3 Derby points and then faded badly in the Lecomte (G3). Crown the Buckeye will shorten in distance and go back to one turn. Use underneath.
4. Fourth and One, 20-1. Maxfield – Jeremiah Englehart / Jose Lezcano – 5: 1-2-1 - $117,000. Fourth and One began his career racing against New York-breds, where he was stakes-placed twice and a maiden winner going the one-turn mile at Aqueduct. His only start as a 3-year-old resulted in a distant sixth-place finish on the Derby trail in the Withers in February going nine furlongs. Toss.
5. Right to Party, 6-1. Constitution – Ken McPeek / Chris Elliot – 2: 1-0-1 - $54,200. Right to Party broke his maiden in his second start at Aqueduct going the mile distance against a field of seven when he rallied from last to win by more than a length. Since that January race he stayed in New York to train under the care of assistant Jimmy Jerkens. Toss.
6. Iron Honor, 9-5. Nyquist – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 1: 1-0-0 - $46,750. Iron Honor was a $475,000 Keeneland yearling purchase. He won his only start in December against a field of seven going six furlongs at 5-1 and earning a speed figure that clearly tops this field. The second-place finisher came back to win his next start. Since his maiden victory, Iron Honor went to Payson Park, Brown’s Florida training base during the winter. Top pick.
7. Exhibition Only, 12-1. Complexity – Rudy Rodriguez / Ruben Silvera – 5: 1-1-0 - $57,050. Exhibition Only moved from turf to dirt to make his first start as a 3-year-old and the fifth of his career, and he was an open-length winner of a $75,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct three weeks ago with a front-end effort. Toss.
8. Creole Chrome, SCRATCH. Volatile – Joe Sharp / Jaime Torres – 3: 2-0-1 - $79,150. Creole Chrome will run in a Louisiana-bred stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds. Scratch.
9. Dirty Rich, 6-1. Thousand Words – Peter Miller / Ramon Vasquez – 6: 2-0-1 - $135,337. Dirty Rich made his first start in Kentucky in June and trailed throughout. He went to California, where he won a $150,000 maiden claimer. Dirty Rich tried a pair of turf stakes without much success. He then moved back to dirt sprinting with a win in the Advent at Oaklawn and a third in his only start this year in the Renaissance. Use underneath.
Summary: The Gotham drew a field of nine Kentucky Derby hopefuls with an eye on the one-turn mile at Aqueduct on Saturday. Thus, it is not surprising that the pace projector expects a fast race.
Only two of the horses in the race have any Derby trail experience, and that makes the Chad Brown debut winner Iron Honor the horse of interest. He impressed in his only race and earned the highest speed figure in the field by a significant margin. He sat a stalking trip at Aqueduct in December and won easily. Hammond ships up from Florida for Saffie Joseph as a stakes winner to use in the exacta at better odds. On Saturday, Iron Honor looks like a promising 3-year-old and has to be the top pick.