Gotham Stakes 2022: Odds and analysis

The 2022 Kentucky Derby trail makes its third stop of the year at Aqueduct with the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes. The one-turn mile, which offers Derby qualifying points of 50-20-10-5 to the top four eligible finishers, drew at field of ten 3-year-olds.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Gotham with odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Gotham is carded as race 10 out of 10 with post time scheduled for 5:27 p.m. EST.

1. Runninsonofagun (15-1 – Gun Runner – John Toscano, Jr. / Jalen Samuel – 3: 2-0-1 - $58,900) Runninsonofagun was claimed from his first two starts. In his debut, he was taken for $30,000 at Churchill Downs after finishing third. Then he got his first victory at Aqueduct, where his current trainer took him for $40,000. Since then, Runninsonofagun won a six-furlong starter allowance at the Big A going six furlongs. Toss.

2. Glider (8-1 – Quality Road – Mark Casse / Antonio Gallardo – 3: 1-1-0 - $38,840) Glider debuted on the Tapeta at Gulfstream Park and then won an off the turf race by more than four-lengths there while racing around two turns. At Tampa Bay Downs at the end of January, Gilder stayed on the dirt to finish second in an allowance behind the highly regarded Todd Pletcher runner Emmanuel. He will ship up to Aqueduct to try the Derby trail for D. J. Stable which is based in New Jersey. Use underneath.

3. Golden Code (10-1 – Honor Code – Todd Pletcher / Kendrick Carmouche – 2: 1-1-0 - $52,500) Golden Code is a New York-bred who raced twice both times against state-breds. This Calumet Farm runner was second in his first start at Aqueduct against a talented runner from the Bill Mott barn and then loved the muddy track at the Big A when he broke his maiden by almost 11-lengths going seven-furlongs. Toss.

4. Fromanothamutha (12-1 – Unified – Ray Handal / Dylan Davis – 6: 1-2-1 - $95,500) Fromanothamutha needed six tries to break his maiden, which he did on Jan. 13 at Aqueduct with a pacesetting score going seven-furlongs. He began his career with two maiden races at Saratoga and then two more at Belmont Park while hitting the board three times. Trainer Ray Handal ran him in the Remsen (G2), where he was seventh, before he finally got that initial win. Not sure why better results should be expected in his return to stakes racing. Toss.

5. Dean’s List (7-2 – Speightstown – Todd Pletcher / Manny Franco – 2: 2-0-0 - $64,200) This speedy son of Speightstown won his first two sprinting starts both of which were at Gulfstream Park. He broke his maiden in December by more than five lengths and came back a month later to win an allowance by a neck as an odds-on favorite. Talent was never a question for Dean’s List, but how far he can run certainly was. Pletcher selected the Gotham and it’s one-turn mile to try and get an answer to that question. Dean’s List  is likely to get a lot of attention from bettors once again. Win Contender.

6. Life Is Great (12-1 – Tapiture – Robert Klesaris / Eric Cancel – 7: 1-2-3 - $119,600) Life Is Great ran his last three times going seven furlongs with a maiden victory and then a second and third in listed stakes. He ran well in all seven starts, but the added distance and the move to the Derby trail look like a lot to ask. Toss.

7. Noneedtoworry (20-1 – Algorithms – Herold Whylie / Sylvester Gonzalez – 6: 2-0-1 - $65,520) Noneedtoworry broke his maiden in his fourth try at Parx Racing and then came right back to win an allowance at his home base. Both wins were around two turns with a closing move. Last month he shipped up to New York and finished fifth in a strong field in the Withers (G3) behind Early Voting and Un Ojo, the upset winner of the Rebel (G2). Toss.

8. Bold Journey (10-1 – Hard Spun – Bill Mott / Jorge Vargas, Jr. – 3: 1-2-0 - $72,500) This New York-bred has three starts at Aqueduct in state-bred company. He broke his maiden by almost seven lengths in his second start in December. With two months between races, Bold Journey stretched out to a mile, had the lead in the Gander, and finished second. The mile distance looked like it was too much in that New York-bred stake. Toss.

9. Morello (3-1 – Classic Empire – Steve Asmussen / Jose Lezcano – 2: 2-0-0 - $99,000) Morello puts his 2 for 2 record on the line as he adds another furlong of distance after winning twice at Aqueduct going six and then seven-furlongs. His maiden score was in November by more than four lengths and then in February he won an allowance by five. Both times he used a stalking trip to find the winner’s circle. Morello gets to stay in New York while trying the Derby trail and the mile distance. He will get plenty of pace to set-up his late run. Top Choice.

10. Rockefeller (7-2 – Medaglia d’Oro – Bob Baffert / Trevor McCarthy – 4: 2-1-0 - $162,500) Rockefeller returns to New York as the leading money earner in the Gotham field mostly due to his front-running victory in the Nashua (G3) at Belmont Park on Nov. 7. Last seen racing on Jan. 1, this Bob Baffert trainee was second in the Sham (G3) behind his stablemate Newgrange, who returned to be a disappointing sixth in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Saturday. Rockefeller was a debut winner at Del Mar in the summer and then was fourth in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Like so many Baffert runners, he prefers to race on the lead. He is already proven going the mile distance. Win contender.

Summary: The Gotham is likely to have a fast early pace with quality speed being provided by a few horses. The unbeaten Todd Pletcher runner Dean’s List should lead the way out of the gate following two six-furlong victories. He should be joined by Fromanothamutha, Golden Code, and Rockefeller.

That fast pace should set the table for the late runners in the field. Thus, my top choice will be Morello, based on his recent seven-furlong victory in the Jimmy Winkfield at Aqueduct.