Gotham Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

Distance cuts back from nine furlongs to a one-turn mile for Saturday's Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, where a field of 11 3-year-olds have entered for a chance to earn a spot in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Available Derby qualifying points of 50-20-10-5 allotted to the top-four finishers are especially important to these runners, who enter the Gotham a with 2 points combined.

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Here is a full-field analysis with the Gotham as the last of four stakes on Saturday's card, going as Race 10 with post time scheduled for 5:42 p.m. ET. Projected morning line odds are provided by Horse Racing Nation.

 Celtic Striker, 12-1 [Congrats – R. Handal/R. Maragh – 4: 2-1-0 - $74,600] Trainer Ray Handal started Celtic Striker’s career at Monmouth Park in the fall, and he broke his maiden there in his second start. He later picked up 1 Derby qualifying point when he ran fourth behind Independence Hall in the Jerome. A front-running score in a mile allowance at Parx earned him another shot on the Derby trail. Toss.

"Looking at him, it looks like a one-turn mile is what he wants to do, but in his last race he just kept finding more," Handal said. "He kept on grinding and that was a legit field that day. The horse that ran second [Irish Cork] had just broke his maiden by 10 and ran second to [Grade 3 Withers winner] Max Player in the previous race. He doesn't show signs of fatigue from that race. He came back like it was nothing."

 Informative, 10-1 [Bodemeister – U. St. Lewis/J. Bisono – 8: 1-2-0 - $88,200] He's the other entrant with a Derby point, which he picked up in the Remsen (G2) when he was still a maiden and ran fourth behind three horses that are still on the Derby trail. He was also second in the J. F. Lewis at Laurel. With a short freshening, Informative came back to rally to break his maiden in his eighth start by a neck in February at Aqueduct. Trainer Uriah St. Lewis’ horses are always dangerous in New York at big odds. Live longshot.

"He's done very well for us and is coming into [the Gotham] in good shape," said St. Lewis. "We always had confidence in him. It took him awhile to get going. He's starting to put everything together and with the experience he's gotten in races, including his victory here at the track and distance, we're giving him a shot to show what he can do."

 War Stopper, 8-1 [Declaration of War – R. Rodriguez/J. Vargas Jr. – 4: 1-0-0 - $41,070] It took four starts for War Stopper to break his maiden, but he did it in front-running fashion going a mile at Aqueduct by four lengths while earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez put the blinkers on for that victory after which he immediately said they would aim for a stakes race. Speed is always good at Aqueduct, and there does not appear to be much signed on in this field. Use underneath.

"He broke good with the blinkers and that made the difference," said Rodriguez. "Hopefully, he can improve a little bit. He'll have to improve...He's coming into the race good, so we'll keep our fingers crossed."

 Attachment Rate, 12-1 [Hard Spun – D. Romans/L .Saez – 3: 1-1-0 - $35,207] It's common for Dale Romans to send horses to New York to take a chance on the Derby trail, as he won the 2017 Gotham with J Boys Echo and was third in 2018 with Free Drop Billy. Attachment Rate, who is a Virginia-bred that sold for $200,000 as a yearling, broke his maiden by more than six lengths in his third start going a mile on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park with a stalking trip. Live longshot.

 Necker Island, 8-1 [Hard Spun – S. Hough/M. Franco – 4: 2-0-1 - $125,137] He made his 2020 debut in the Swale Stakes (G3) after ending his 2-year-old season with a mile allowance score at Churchill Downs. He was third in his debut behind the highly regarded Three Technique. Veteran trainer Stanley Hough has excuses for his fifth-place finish in the Swale. Trifecta finish.

"He had a little bit a of a setback following his allowance win at Churchill and we kind of had to rush him a bit to run in the Swale," said Hough. "It also didn't help he had a rough trip in there. We were shuffled towards the back and couldn't make up any ground having to travel wide most of the way. We know he'll appreciate the one-turn mile and hopefully we'll get a better trip then last time."

 Mischevious Alex, 5-2 [Into Mischief – John Servis/K. Carmouche – 6: 3-1-1 - $179,230] The leading money winner in the field comes into the race with two consecutive stakes victories – the Parx Juvenile in November and then the more recent Swale (G3) by seven lengths. He has tactical speed which should serve him well in this field. Top choice.

"He should have won his second start, but he got himself in a bit of a jackpot and ended up checking pretty hard. He fell back and came running but it was definitely a winning race," said Servis. "In the Sapling, Trevor thought he moved a little too soon with him. He got to the lead and then pulled himself up and got caught late."

 Sixto, 12-1 [Curlin – E. Guillot/E. Cancel – 1: 1-0-0 - $37,400] Sixto, who sold for six-figure prices both as a yearling and a 2-year-old, was a 13-1 debut winner for trainer Eric Guillot at Aqueduct going six furlongs after stalking in a five-horse field. He has a recent bullet work here in New York, and the son of Curlin should appreciate the added distance. Trainer Guillot is dangerous at big odds when he has a horse with some talent. Use Underneath.

 "He's a very aggressive young colt -- very classy," Guillot said. "The best part about him is that he's very push button. He can do just about whatever you want him to. He'll get on the muscle in the shed row when he's being walked, but when he's on the track he's aggressive and all class."

 Montauk Traffic, 7-2 [Cross Traffic – L. Rice/J. Lezcano – 3: 2-0-0 - $94,000] Trainer Linda Rice will stretch out this son of Cross Traffic after three starts at seven furlongs. His debut was a complete throw-out, but he won his last two with late runs, including the Jimmy Winkfield at Aqueduct. A stakes win at Big A, which has been a very slow surface lately, is a big plus for him. Win contender.

"Right now, he's a lightly raced horse. He's run two seven-furlong races at Aqueduct," Rice said. "I think that the added distance should be no problem at all. It should be very helpful. We're just gaining racing experience as we go along so it's a nice progression for him."

 Flap Jack, 15-1 [Oxbow – J. Sisterson/D. Carroll – 3: 1-1-0 - $51,080] Calumet Farm has two entered in the Gotham. This Jack Sisterson trainee has not run since he won the seven-furlong Futurity at Arlington Park in September by four lengths after overcoming traffic. He shows two bullet works in his preparation at Fair Grounds. His three races were on different surfaces: dirt, turf, then synthetic. Toss.

 Untitled, 6-1 [Khozan – M. Casse/J. Alvarado – 3: 1-1-0 - $35,675] As in often the case with runners from the Mark Casse barn, Untitled has been gaining valuable experience against good horses. He was a debut winner by 11 lengths against state-breds in Florida and came back to run fourth in the Swale after getting bounced around at the start. Then, he was second in a two-turn allowance at Tampa behind Todd Pletcher’s possible Derby horse in Gouverneur Morris. Board hitter.

 First Deputy, 10-1 [Awesome Again – L. Rice/D. Davis – 7: 2-3-1 - $121,530] Trainer Linda Rice sends this Calumet Farm-owned New York-bred to make his first start against open company after breaking his maiden and then winning an allowance, with both of those races at Aqueduct. He will now have to stretch out at mile. Use underneath.

"He's bred for the distance. He didn't run well at the mile before but I'm hoping that he's gaining a lot of seasoning and is more suited for it this time around," Rice said.

Summary: This is a wide-open running of the Gotham where handicappers are going to have difficulty eliminating any of the 11 horses, let alone picking a winner.

It is worth noting that the Aqueduct surface produced very slow times last week in races at all levels. However, the track was not showing any bias for running styles. If uncontested, horses can win easily while racing on the lead. If they duel up front, then the closers are able to get to the victory.

A recommended wagering tactic for the Gotham is to pick a longshot or two and key them in trifecta in the second and/or third position.