Santa Anita fair odds: DeRosa leans on Goodwood shipper

Fans of First Mission certainly could not have liked him losing the Grade 3 Philip Iselin at Monmouth Park at 1-5 last out, but the good news is with defeat comes a loss of luster that could help his price next time out.

That time is now as trainer Brad Cox ships First Mission to Santa Anita for the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes on Saturday. This is one of three key Breeders' Cup preps this weekend but the only Grade 1 among the trio, which also includes the Woodward Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct and Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill Downs.

And it is likely that designation is what led Cox to ship First Mission to the Goodwood and keep Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show at home for the Lukas Classic. Both have shown no problems with shipping. First Mission has won at four tracks while competing at seven venues. But although he's a four-time graded stakes winner, he is not a Grade 1 winner.

Attaining that elusive level of prestige will be no easy task in a Goodwood that features a speedy Full Serrano on the front end and a trio of Bob Baffert-trained runners all looking for breakthrough wins of sorts.

Brass tacks, though, First Mission is the fastest of these. Although the Iselin certainly was disappointing, especially if you backed at 2-5, that was a winning race based on numbers. The Stephen Foster (G1) was not a winning race, but there's no shame in finishing behind Mindframe and Sierra Leone and in front of Mystik Dan. The time before that was the best race of his career, winning the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) over Banishing and Skippylongstocking, two horses going in different directions now but who both went on to win stakes this year.

All that is to say, First Mission's class measures his numbers, and unless the world agrees with me, I think we'll get the right price to lean on him.

Full Serrano is dangerous, making his second start off the layoff after not racing for 10 months following hsi win in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. The comeback race against overmatched allowance foes was impressive against the clock, but that two-turn mile at Del Mar is a lot different than 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita. Of the two horses taking money, I expect Full Serrano to be the underlay.

It's rare for Baffert to have three in a race and none be favored, but that is his spot with Gaming, Privman and Nevada Beach. Fair odds on the trio if they were coupled as in the old days would be 4-1, so it's not as if Baffert has no shot here. Nevada Beach intrigues as the up-and-coming 3-year-old off a stakes win. Privman has yet to win a stakes but is the fastest of the Baffert brigade on numbers. Gaming is the field's only other Grade 1 winner, along with Full Serrano.

I'll take a peak at exactas and see if they're overbetting the chalk pair, as there might be some potential exotic value in beating Full Serrano out of the second spot for either Nevada Beach or Privman.