Gold Cup at Santa Anita 2018: Odds and analysis

The ranks in the older male division are a bit thin in 2018 thus far, so the Grade 1, $500,000 Gold Cup at Santa Anita has drawn a small field of seven California-based horses. Saturday's race, which is contested at a mile and a quarter, was run as the Hollywood Gold Cup until Hollywood Park was closed and subsequently demolished. It moved to the Great Race Place and took on a new name in 2014.

The Gold Cup faces competition for runners from the June 9 Met Mile at Belmont Park as well as the Jun 16 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs. Both of those races are Breeders’ Cup "Win and You’re In" qualifiers, while the Gold Cup no longer carries that status.

Here is the field for the Gold Cup, which is slated as Race 5 out of 9 (post time 5:30pm ET), with morning line odds.

Little Scotty [ML 15-1 – Paddy O’ Prado – Cerin/A. Espinoza – 27: 5-4-3 - $196,143] Little Scotty was claimed for $40,000 in October as a turf runner, but he has found new form racing on the dirt in his last two starts. In April, he was a run-off winner on the front end going 10 furlongs in an allowance optional claimer. The 5-year-old has never run in graded stakes race. Facing a huge class challenge.

Accelerate [ML 2-1 – Lookin At Lucky – Sadler/V. Espinoza – 18: 6-5-5 - $1,412,480] One of three sons of Lookin At Lucky in this field, Accelerate has been one of the best handicap horses in California for the last couple of years. He has wins in the San Pasqual (G2) and the Big 'Cap (G1) at Santa Anita this year. He then traveled out to Arkansas where he was upset by City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap. There is no question about his ability to get the 10-furlong distance. He is the leading money winner in the field. This classy runner is in an ideal spot.

Prince of Arabia [ML 12-1 – Mineshaft – Cassidy/Elliot – 21: 3-4-4 - $209,520] Last out, this son of Mineshaft ran second to Dr. Dorr in the Californian. That was the best performance of his career in a stakes race. He has two career allowance victories to his credit. He’s a good solid runner on turf and dirt, but in here he’s facing some horses that are just better than he is. Mid-pack finish expected.

City of Light [ML 9-5 – Quality Road – M. McCarthy/Van Dyke – 7: 4-3-0 - $940,600] From the barn of a former Todd Pletcher assistant, City of Light has never finished worse than second in seven career starts. His last three races include two Grade 1 wins and a Grade 2 victory with the most-recent score coming in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) over a field of 11 that included Accelerate. The son of Quality Road has not lost since switching riders to Drayden Van Dyke. His first six races were in sprints, but the win at Oaklawn Park was around two turns. There, he rallied from sixth position. In career-best form and continues to stretch out.

Dr. Dorr [ML 5-2 – Lookin At Lucky – Baffert/Talamo – 11: 5-0-1 - $288,320] This 5-year-old son of the underrated sire Lookin At Lucky has improved in 2018. Dr. Dorr was bred by a group headed by Bob Baffert that includes actor Jack Klugman of The Odd Couple fame and 1980 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Jaklin Klugman. This year, Dr. Dorr sports a perfect record in three races that have progressed from the allowance ranks to a victory in the Californian (G2) by more than seven-lengths. This horse loves the Santa Anita track, where he has won 5 for 7 starts. In his last two stakes wins against small fields he was on or near the lead throughout the races. Dr. Dorr has never tried the 10-furlong distance or run at the Grade 1 level. Perfect in 2018, but steps up in class here.

Pavel [ML 5-1 – Creative Cause – O’Neill/Gutierrez – 8: 2-0-1 - $847,400] I’m going to say what I said before Pavel ran in the Dubai World Cup, and that is that I wish they would run this horse in a softer spot. He has run in four Grade 1 races and a Grade 2 since his last victory in the Smarty Jones (G3) at Parx in September of 2017, and he has not finished better than third. His last three starts have ended in fourth-place finishes. At this point, I’m not sure how good Pavel really is, but a confidence builder sure seems to be in order. Now Pavel is being asked to run a mile and a quarter in his first start back from Dubai against some very nice handicap horses. In another very tough spot.

Full of Luck [ML 15-1 – Lookin At Lucky – Hollendorfer/Prat – 16: 8-1-2 - $274,967] This Chilean turf specialist came to the USA in the spring, making one start on the grass at Golden Gate and one on the dirt at Santa Anita. He was fourth on the dirt in the Californian behind Dr. Dorr and Prince of Arabia. He is cross-entered in the Charlie Whittingham on the turf and must decide on a race by Friday. In a tough spot on the dirt here.

Summary: The Gold Cup presents an interesting rematch between Accelerate and City of Light. City of Light stretched out to win the Oaklawn Handicap coming from off the pace, but the added distance here could give the advantage to Accelerate who has proven form at the 10-furlong distance. Pavel is the wild card. Can he finally live up to his hype? He will have to show me first before I’d bet on him.