Ginger Brew fair odds: Most likely winner offers value

A lot of times we are against a favorite not because we think they can't win, but because the price is not properly compensating us the fair chance that the favorite does win.

That is not the case in the Ginger Brew Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Life's an Audible is not only a terrible bet at the 2-1 morning line but also is not even the most likely winner in the full field of 13.

It is conceivable Ozara is favored over Life's an Audible, but even if that is the case, it is impossible to foresee Life's an Audible ever offering value here considering my 8-1 fair odds. 

Indeed, Ozara is my most likely winner. She already booked a win at Gulfstream, taking the two-turn, 7 1/2-furlong Wait a While Stakes. She adds a half-furlong here, and that should be no issue for the Irish daughter of Lope de Vega. Her only try at a mile actually was also her only one-turn race, and those waters were deep in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine. Still, she attended the pace from an outside post before being outrun late. She's much more dangerous against these.

If Ozara takes too much money then either Time to Dazzle or Waskesiu look interesting off their 15-1 and 8-1 morning lines, respectively. Both have shown an ability to run on early through three career starts, but it is encouraging that they fired quick Brisnet late-pace ratings in their last efforts. Each is capable of a mid-pack move at decent prices.

Both Super Screener and fair odds are against the morning-line favorite. My coast-to-coast Pick 5 ticket will single Ozara at or longer than my fair odds, a first-leg benefit. If she is slightly below that threshold, then I will want to use both the 5 and 6 on my main ticket, assuming they are at my fair odds or longer.

Within this race only, I'm most excited to bet Ozara to win if the price is right. Otherwise, I'd probably look more to the exacta pool, tossing the 12 and using other overlays.