Analysis: Gaffalione is on fire heading into Preakness weekend

The only people more excited than Tyler Gaffalione about the jockey picking up the mount on Happy Jack for the Preakness Stakes are his fellow Churchill Downs riders.

That’s because in order for Gaffalione to ride Happy Jack in the Preakness on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course, he can’t be at Churchill Downs. In fact, he’ll miss both Friday and Saturday beneath the Twin Spires, as he has 13 mounts over the two days at Old Hilltop.

But he will be on board Thursday at Churchill Downs looking to pad his lead in the jockey standings, which he leads by seven, 15-8, over both Luis Saez and Brian Hernandez.

It was post Derby week, however, that Gaffalione really asserted himself, winning 11 of 28 races with a +27.3 percent HRN Impact score and a +39.6 percent flat-bet profit. Of the 27 jockeys with at least 3 starts that week, Gaffalione’s 39.2 percent win rate easily ranked best.

"My agent [Matt Muzikar] was really prepared for spring," Gaffalione said. "It’s always a transition coming to Kentucky after riding in Florida, but he was ready. I have so much confidence knowing he’s getting me on the right horses, and they’re showing up for me big time."

And when it comes to Gaffalione’s book, Muzikar has it open for everyone. Gaffalione’s 15 wins this Churchill meeting have come for nine different trainers, including a pair for Robby Medina.

Gaffalione has also proven proficient in multiple surfaces with six wins each dirt sprinting and turf routing this meeting, plus a dirt route and a pair of turf sprints for good measure.

"Derby week maybe the inside was a little better, but it’s definitely evened out and is a fair track," Gaffalione said of the main track.

The turf course at Churchill is brand new, and Gaffalione has won eight of the 27 races to date on it. For daily stats like those above for every track, check out the Horse Racing Nation Hot Jockey Report.

"Management has done a great job responding to jockeys about how the course is riding,” Gaffalione said. "It’s better with the rails out, and overall this course is going to be amazing."

Gaffalione will be aboard Happy Jack in the Preakness, a race he won in 2019 with War of Will. That came with a forwardly placed runner, but Happy Jack’s style is more off the pace.

"This will be a different set up, but with the blinkers going back on think we can be more involved, and the [trainer Doug] O’Neill team gives you all the confidence in the world,” Gaffalione said. “For me, I won’t look at the Derby as much. It’s a 20-horse field and just not as indicative of the kind of run we’ll be looking for Saturday. I will watch back to see how he handled the crowd and the noise. The Preakness is just as loud as the Derby.

"I’m living the dream every day," Gaffalione continued. "It’s not work for me, so I don’t take everything for granted."