Full card picks for Breeders' Cup 2019's Saturday races

On Breeders' Cup Saturday, nine championship events headline a 12-race card at Santa Anita Park, where I expect some solid favorites and longshot winners alike. Let's get to handicapping, with some wagering suggestions for each race included...

Race 1: Senator Ken Maddy Stakes (1:07 p.m. ET)

Play a $0.50 pick 5 using 9 with 4,5 with 3,5,8,9,11,13 with 4,9 with 2,4,10 ($36.00 ticket)

Race 2: Damascus Stakes (1:42 p.m. ET)
Five will head to the gate for this seven-furlong sprint. All eyes will be on Roadster (post 3) as he returns to the racetrack for the first time since June, but I don’t think he finishes in the exacta here. I prefer the undefeated Bob Baffert stablemate Comical Ghost (post 5). At 8-1 on the morning line, I expect the Ghostzapper colt to get to the lead with Flagstaff (post 4) and battle that one throughout. The main track should still be deep and speed-favoring, so it’s either Flagstaff or Comical Ghost winning out. I’m playing both of them in the early pick 5, only Comical Ghost in the pick 4, but Roadster in neither. Make a win/place bet on Comical Ghost.

Play a $0.50 pick 5 using 5 with 1,3,5,8,9,10,11,13 with 1,4,9 with 2,10 ($24.00 ticket) 

Race 3: Twilight Derby (2:17 p.m. ET)
This looks like a wide-open turf route for 3-year-olds. As evidenced by my early multi-race wagers, I see plenty of win contenders. My top choice is Kingly (post 9, who I think can win in gate-to-wire fashion. We didn’t see his best at Del Mar, but his City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita could signal a return to form. Nolde (post 3) will be short on the tote board but is a logical winner and one to use in exotics. A longer shot I’m interested in is Succeedandsurpass (post 5), who may be forgotten at the windows considering he’s only faced winners once prior to today.

Play a 3,5 and 9 exacta box. Add Neptune’s Storm (post 8) and Henley’s Joy (post 11) underneath in trifecta keys with 3,5,9 over 3,5,8,9,11 over 3,5,8,9,11.

Race 4: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (2:55 p.m. ET)
It’s all Breeders’ Cup races from here on out, and the first favorite I’m trying to beat is Covfefe (post 1). She will have no choice but to go from the gate, something she has done with success but against lesser competition. Selcourt (post 7) and Danuska’s My Girl (post 2) figure to go with Covfefe early. While the track has been deep and speed-favoring, the early pace here may tire the frontrunners enough to allow a winner from off the pace. To me, the one with the best chance of doing that is Spiced Perfection (post 9), with Come Dancing (post 4) another that needs to be on tickets. This race could feature one of the few true pace meltdowns on the main track this weekend.

Key 4 and 9 over 1,4,5 and 9 in exactas and box 1,4,5,9 in trifectas; play a $0.50 pick 4 using 4,9 with ALL with 1,5 with 2 ($24.00 ticket)

Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (3:33 p.m. ET)

The Turf Sprint looks like a free for all. I have a top choice in Pure Sensation (post 2) that could go off as the favorite based on his running style and draw. Anytime you have a morning line favorite at 9/2, which we have in Eddie Haskell (post 10), there is a good chance that exactas and trifectas will pay well. Add to this scenario that the race will feature a mad dash at the distance, a full field of 12 runners and Breeders' Cup day pools. Pure Sensation will get some company early from Shekky Shebaz (post 4), but trips for the other runners will be tough to plan. I believe Om (post 11) and Belvoir Bay (post 12) have no choice but to gun for the lead, and they might not get there. Imprimis (post 3) and Totally Boss (post 1) will also appear on my tickets. Key exactas and trifectas with 2,4 and 10 over 1,2,3,4 and 10. 

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (4:10 p.m. ET)

Here’s where I start playing some longshots, trying to beat the heavily favored Omaha Beach (post 5) with Giant Expectations (post 1). Omaha Beach recently returned to the races with a speed figure similar to the level he was at before throat surgery last spring. I'm not counting on the assumption of most horseplayers: that Omaha Beach will continue moving forward here. Plus, he'll be massively over-bet. While I wrote before the draw that I liked Improbable to beat Omaha Beach, I no longer think he’s the one. Coming into this race after two well-spaced runner-up efforts, Giant Expectations could be primed to do one better and has plenty of local work experience. I’ll take him at what could be close to 15-1 in an upset. Mr. Money (post 4) and Spun to Run (post 3) can fill out exactas and trifectas.

Key 1 over 3,4,5 in exactas and trifectas. Play a $0.50 pick 4 using 1,4,5 with 2 with 4,6 with 2,5,6,9,11 ($15.00 ticket)

Here, I'm taking the easy single opportunity with Sistercharlie (post 2). She’s one of the most likely winners of the weekend, and there is no need to explain beyond the fact that she's won six straight Grade 1 races, including this event last year. She will not have the usual services of her rabbit in Thais, a vet scratch, and I hope other bettors see this as a bad sign. Notice that in the 2018 Breeders' Cup, Sistercharlie won without any of Thais' help. Mirth (post 5) will probably be the pacesetter and may run fractions similar to what Thais would have produced. The only two that concern me here are Vasilika (post 7) and the John Gosden filly Fanny Logan (post 12). I like Iridessa (post 1) to fill out exotics.

Play trifectas keying 2 over 1, 7 and 12. 

Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (5:36 p.m. ET)

While many handicappers I respect feel this is a difficult race to pare down to a few top contenders, that's just what I'll try to do. This, to me, is a two-horse race between Mitole (post 4) and Shancelot (post 6). While I had originally tabbed Imperial Hint as my top play in the Sprint, I don’t think he will get over the Santa Anita track well as the other two. Imperial Hint is most definitely useful in exotics, but I think this is Mitole’s race to lose, and only 3-year-old Shancelot has a chance to beat him. The pace will be fast. Both had at least three published workouts over this track and went well.

Key 4 and 6 over 1,2,4,6 and 9 in exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Play a $0.50 pick 5 using 4,6 with 2,5,6,9,11 with 1,4,6,7,11 with 9 with 5,8 ($50.00 ticket)
Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Mile (6:20 p.m. ET)
To me, the Mile is the most difficult race to handicap over these two days. There isn’t a lot of early pace signed on, and many of the runners share similar running styles. It’s not quite to the level of parity as in the Turf Sprint, but I have a hard time envisioning how the race shape will form. When I find myself in situations like this, I gravitate to longshots. My top price play all weekend is True Valour (post 5), who comes into this race on a two-race win streak and will be making his second start off the layoff. A forward move from his victory in the City of Hope Mile (G2) over the course and distance should help him outrun his 20-1 morning line odds. Got Stormy (post 6) and Uni (post 11) are logical and, admittedly popular, choices. Both are coming into this race having hit the board in at least five straight races. Got Stormy could wind up the post time favorite, but even if she wins, the exacta and trifecta prices should be juicy.

Key 5 and 6 over 2,5,6,9 and 11 in exacta and trifectas.
Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (7:00 p.m. ET)
Midnight Bisou (post 4) has enjoyed a wonderful 2019 season. She’s undefeated. She’ll probably be Horse of the Year if she wins this race and Bricks and Mortar fails to win the Turf (which, foreshadowing, he won’t). She has owned Elate, beating her every time the two faced one another. Midnight Bisou has won four Grade 1 races this year, and is gunning for five. There is a pretty good chance she wins here, but this is a race where I’ll go deep in multi-race bets because I don't think she's a sure thing. Serengeti Empress (post 9) should get an uncontested lead and may burn herself out again. Meanwhile, Paradise Woods (post 1) may not be highly regarded, but I like her local experience. Wow Cat (post 6) and Secret Spice (post 7) may be rounding into form. Midnight Bisou remains the likely winner, but I'll go deep just in case a long season catches up to her.

Play 1,6,7 and 9 over 4 in exactas. Box a superfecta with 1,4,6,7,9. Use all five in multi-race wagers.

Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf (7:40 p.m. ET)
As alluded to earlier, I’m singling Bricks and Mortar (post 9) in the Turf. Obviously, the added distance doesn't concern me. Chad Brown will have him, as with Sistercharlie, primed to go. The only question is who rounds out the board, and there’s still plenty of money to be made by picking some longer shots underneath. Zulu Alpha (post 1) is a prime candidate. He’s been apt to go wide in a lot of his races, and it will be up to jockey Jose Ortiz to keep him near the rail and saving ground at all costs. I expect him to go off at above 25-1. Arlow (post 11), although 12-1 on the morning line, should be bet down as another top domestic runner. His isn' far off Bricks and Mortar, making him a must-use underneath. By all accounts, Old Persian (post 10) looks great on the Santa Anita track, and he’ll be well-backed. I will side against both him and Anthony Van Dyck (post 5), the overseas Group 1 winner for Aiden O'Brien.