Fukuryu favorite Danon Bourbon could land in Kentucky Derby

Danon Bourbon is the odds-on favorite to win the last race on Japan’s road to Kentucky Derby 2026 and potentially earn the invitation to line up at Churchill Downs on May 2.

The 2-for-2 Maxfield colt was showing at 4-5 in the early Japan Racing Association win mutuels for the US$228,562 Fukuryu Stakes, a two-turn, 1 1/8-mile dirt race at Nakayama. Post time is Saturday at 2:10 a.m. EDT, Friday at 11:10 p.m. PDT.

For Danon Bourbon to get the one Japan invitation to the Derby, he must win, and long shot Lucky Kid (40-1) could finish no better than fourth. Lucky Kid holds the lead in the Japan qualifying standings thanks to his 22-1 upset victory Feb. 22 in the Hyacinth Stakes in Tokyo.

Of the 10 3-year-old colts entered in the Fukuryu, Lucky Kid with 30 points and Don Erectus (28-1) with 20 are the only ones who automatically would get first dibs on the Derby berth with a victory. However, in the case of Don Erectus, his connections have not nominated him for the America’s classics. According to Kate Hunter, the U.S. Triple Crown’s Japan-based liaison, his connections have not signaled their intent to accept a Derby berth.

The Fukuryu is worth 40-20-12-8-4 points to the top five finishers, so Lucky Kid certainly would get first crack at the Derby by finishing at least second.

Itterasshai (6-1), the third choice behind recent allowance winner Charlie (2-1), finished third to Lucky Kid in the Hyacinth and carries nine points into the Fukuryu. If he were to win, he would get the invitation to Churchill Downs as long as Lucky Kid finished third or worse.

Hunter said connections for six of the 10 Fukuryu entrants have said they would take the Kentucky Derby invitation. They include Danon Bourbon, Itterasshai and Lucky Kid. They also include Libeccio (8-1), T O Kaiser (39-1) and American Style (59-1), who have no qualifying points yet.

If the top point-getter turns down the invitation, then it would be offered to as many as three other horses in the standings. “If the connections of the top four horses on the Japan road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard do not accept the invitation or nominate such horses to become eligible to compete, Churchill Downs reserves the right to offer one invitation to a Japanese-trained or registered horse whose performance in group races has been exceptional, at Churchill Downs’ sole discretion,” according to Derby conditions.

Drawn into post 5 in the field of 10 3-year-old colts, Danon Bourbon makes his stakes debut in the Fukuryu. He was a first-out winner against 15 rival 2-year-olds in a 1 1/8-mile maiden race Oct. 26, leading from gate to wire to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths on a muddy track at Kyoto. That was where he stretched to 1 3/16 miles last out Feb. 15 in an allowance race for nine 3-year-olds. He stalked the early lead as the 9-10 favorite en route to a three-quarter-length triumph on a course rated good.

Manabu Ikezoe trains Danon Bourbon for owner Masahiro Noda’s Danox Company. Atsuya Nishimura, who rode last month’s win, will be aboard and start from post position 5.

Itterasshai makes his fourth start for trainer Makoto Saito. The Mischevious Alex colt owned by Takafumi Horie’s SNS Group broke his maiden on his second try when he went 1 1/8 miles to win Dec. 13 over the Fukuryu course and distance. After his loss in the Hyacinth, Itterasshai will be ridden for the first time by Takeshi Yokoyama and break from post 10.

Lucky Kid is a Godolphin homebred who won his debut against 15 other juveniles Oct. 19 in Tokyo. A third-place finish Nov. 27 in a local-level stakes at Sonoda and an eighth-place result Jan. 31 in a Tokyo allowance race dampened bettors’ enthusiasm for him next out. Still, he raced in mid-pack in the Hyacinth before closing for a neck victory over Don Erectus. Trained by Yukihiro Kato, Lucky Kid will start from post 9 with jockey Akihide Tsumura.

The weather for the Fukuryu is forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency to be clearing after a 50% chance of morning showers with a high of 66 degrees.