Friday's Bailout Special: Closing with a 12-1 Keeneland longshot
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my “Bailout Special” which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back.
Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the “Bailout Special.”
Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence. Use the Bailout Special.
The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.”
My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds.
Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes.
Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes.
But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play.
Without further ado...
Race 10 $7,500 claiming 3-years old and up
1 1/16 miles on dirt; post time 6:03 p.m. ET
Whereas Thursday I successfully picked a short-priced winner, for Friday I’m taking a chance on a 12-1 morning line shot.
I expect this to be a race with handsome exotic payouts. There are plenty of double-digit odds horses with a chance, and we could see a 10-1 winner over a 12-1 runner-up horse in this one.
Oashaar (post 10) is a horse to use underneath, as he won at this level last out for owner/trainer Jamen Davidovich at Mountaineer. He’s never raced at Keeneland and is stretching out in distance, but he’s hit the board in four of his last seven races.
Chasingthegame (post 6) comes in on a two-race winning streak for owner/trainer Stephen Dunn. The 4-year old gelding by Albertus Maximus is moving up in class but finished second at this level at Keeneland last October. He shows one win in three career starts at the distance. At 12-1 on the morning line, he may be forgotten at the betting windows, but has a good chance to hit the board at a price.
Pete Marwick (post 12), trained by Charles “Scooter” Dickey (no relation!) is also 12-1 on the morning line and will be two races removed from an ambitious spotting at Kentucky Downs last month. He rebounded from that race by finishing third at Churchill Downs at this level on Sept. 29. I expect him to finish somewhere near that result in this race.
But it’s 12-1 Due to His Charm (post 2) that is my Bailout Special pick for Friday. He has hit the board ten times in 17 career starts at this distance. He has a win under his belt at Keeneland (1-for-2 lifetime). Trainer David Vance already has a win this meet in Lexington, and his barn is heating up.
Due to His Charm will have an opportunity to hold the rail early in the race and can save ground throughout. He should be within one or two lengths of the early pace and save energy for the stretch run. While his last win came on July 5 at Ellis Park, his race here at Keeneland should more closely resemble his race two back on August 10 at Ellis, where he was forwardly placed but bore out late.
It’s not often that I’ll have a 12-1 shot as my Bailout Special, but here we are.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back.
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