Freshman Sire Watch: Complexity, Vekoma lead top 20
The 2024 freshman sire crop is brand new, but with 676 starts and 101 wins, some early trends are starting to develop. But it's important to keep in mind that 82 percent of freshman sire starts have been in dirt sprints, so we're very early in the game.
Complexity with 13 wins and Vekoma with 11 wins are leading the way so far with Thousand Words close behind with eight. In total 23 of the new sires have been represented with two wins so far.
Let's look at some of the trends.
Hot starts: Complexity, Vekoma, Thousand Words
Those top three sires represent 14.6 percent of the starts (99 of 676) but 31.6 percent of the winners (32 of 101). Of those top three, the numbers we are watching most closely are Complexity's 38 win percentage and huge HRN impact number of 127 percent. This means that not only are they winning a large percentage, but they are significantly outrunning their odds.
By contrast, Vekoma's win percentage is 34 but his impact is only 43 percent. This means the Vekoma's have been well spotted, winning races as favorites or top contenders quite often. The fact that Complexity's offspring are outrunning the odds makes it a stronger pattern, although this is very early in the game and we are mostly talking about dirt sprint starts only.
Some other sires off to hot starts include Volatile, Win Win Win and Caracaro who are winning at 25, 33 and 33 percent, respectively.
Slow starts
It's hard to make much from just a few starts and the fact that these are mostly dirt sprints, but here are some of the slower starters. Gift Box is sitting at 0-for-16, currently all other sires with ten starters have recorded at least one win.
Some of the other slow starters include Game Winner at 1-for-20, McKinzie 1-for-16, Maximum Security 1-for-13, Improbable 2-for-33 and Authentic 2-for-31.
Promises Fullfilled is 1-for-11, which isn't really a slow start, but I wanted to note that every other sire with 10 or more starts is above 10 percent.
Here are the statistics to date for freshman sires with a minimum of three starts:
| Sire | Starts | W | P | S | Win% | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complexity | 34 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 38% | 127% |
| Thousand Words | 33 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24% | 93% |
| Improbable | 33 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6% | –49% |
| Vekoma | 32 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 34% | 43% |
| War of Will | 31 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 13% | –42% |
| Authentic | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6% | –49% |
| Tiz the Law | 26 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15% | –10% |
| Instagrand | 25 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12% | –14% |
| Global Campaign | 21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14% | 20% |
| Tom's d'Etat | 21 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 10% | –21% |
| Volatile | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 82% |
| Honor A. P. | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15% | 44% |
| Bodexpress | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10% | –32% |
| Game Winner | 20 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5% | –54% |
| Spun to Run | 19 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11% | –37% |
| Echo Town | 16 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 19% | 13% |
| McKinzie | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6% | –64% |
| Gift Box | 16 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0% | –100% |
| Maximum Security | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8% | –28% |
| Win Win Win | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 33% | 38% |
| Promises Fulfilled | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9% | –58% |
| Caracaro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70% |
| Shancelot | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22% | 6% |
| Phantom Boss | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 22% | 10% |
| Yorkton | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Higher Power | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13% | –30% |
| Speightsong | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Mr. Money | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0% | –100% |
| Event Driven | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 29% | 76% |
| Aurelius Maximus | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 29% | 155% |
| Instilled Regard | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 29% | 73% |
| Isotherm | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | –100% |
| Honest Mischief | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Barkley | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0% | –100% |
| King for a Day | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17% | 87% |
| Lone Sailor | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17% | 69% |
| Timeline | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0% | –100% |
| Runaway Ghost | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Gunnevera | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| Fog of War | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| Country House | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Bahjatty | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 67% | 300% |
| Calculator | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 48% |
| Rowayton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33% | 71% |
| Potomac River | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| American Anthem | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Curlin's Honor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| Air Strike | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Giant Expectations | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| Durango Kid | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| Dak Attack | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | –100% |
| Count Alexander | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |
| Cutting Humor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | –100% |