Free Preakness Stakes 2020 PPs now available

In a year full of anomalies, one recurring theme remains: Bob Baffert coming to Baltimore with the favorite for the Preakness Stakes. Baffert, who is seeking an eighth Preakness victory, will send out Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and Thousand Words, who was scratched in the Derby after acting up in the paddock.

Baffert is undefeated with Derby winners in the Preakness, but the 2020 edition could prove as difficult to win as the Derby given the unique timing. Authentic will have to deal with a fresh and dangerous Art Collector and an extremely talented filly in Swiss Skydiver, among others.

Though Authentic is a legitimate talent, conceding him this race as a handicapper is a mistake. We turn to our friends at Brisnet for free past performances to better gauge who can win the third leg of this year's Triple Crown.

The first Brisnet metric that we will look at is Current Class. Fresh off his Kentucky Derby and Haskell wins, one would think Authentic has to be considered the classiest horse in this field. That is far from the case as Authentic comes in a tie for fourth in this category. Brisnet was unimpressed with this year's Kentucky Derby as it was Authentic's lowest Brisnet Speed Figure in his last three races. Authentic's backers will give the colt credit for beating Tiz the Law, but figure-wise Tiz the Law regressed quite a bit in the Derby. Maybe he really does not like Churchill Downs?

Brisnet prefers recent efforts from Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver and feel they have been facing better than it may appear on paper. 

Authentic had a pretty easy lead in the Kentucky Derby, but in his defense he had to set fast fractions to maintain such an advantage. As a result of fast early fractions, he came home slowly, relatively speaking. He can stagger home again if he gets out to an easy early lead, but what will happen if Art Collector or Ny Traffic decided to engage Authentic in a duel? 

 Does he have enough of a closing kick to hold off the   closers? According to the Derby pace, the answer is no.   Brisnet's Late Pace Last Race does not like the way the   final quarter was run in the Kentucky Derby.   Authentic was holding off horses that were not coming   with much mojo. Mr. Big News and Max Player, who   seemed to be closing well, were simply picking off tired   horses. The top 6 horses in this category all did not run   in the Kentucky Derby, which is rather telling. Swiss   Skydiver and Art Collector, who have the speed to be   close to Authentic early are expected to outkick him late.

Pneumatic could be an interesting long shot to round out exotic wagering based off his strong closing ability. 

Authentic can certainly win the Preakness, but these Brisnet metrics help show the vulnerabilities in what could be a heavy favorite. Art Collector seems like a better play with Swiss Skydiver, Authentic and even Pneumatic underneath.

Take a closer look at the Preakness PPs below, with the option to go full screen in the lower right corner of the window. Visit our free past performances page to view free stakes PPs from a busy weekend at Pimlico and Keeneland.

Preakness PPs