Free Malibu Stakes PPs now available
The Malibu Stakes (G1) has long been one of the premiere sprint races in America for 3-year-olds, but one could argue that Santa Anita Park's marquee event on Saturday is the best sprint race of 2020 even with a short field
Those who value quality over quantity are justifiably impressed with the star power and upside of Nashville, Charlatan and Independence Hall, along with the impressive resumes of Collusion Illusion and Thousand Words.
Nashville and Charlatan figure to take most of the money as each has never been asked for a second gear while romping to the wire in each of their three starts.
The big question mark surrounding these two rocket ships is their ability to rate. A fast pace seems a certainty, but will they be dueling or will one sit off the other?
We turn to our friends at Brisnet for free past performances to help determine which colt will be able to make the lead.
As fast as Charlatan is, his early speed is not even close to Nashville's, whose early pace figures come back 20 points higher.
If Nashville breaks well, he should be able to make a clear lead. If so, we will learn if Charlatan can pass horses for the first time in his career.
Charlatan is less likely to have the same turn of foot as he normally does if forced to chase fast fractions from an unfamiliar position.
It is important to note that Nashville's late pace numbers are also higher than Charlatan, making it unlikely that this lightly race colt gives up the lead.
Assuming Nashville puts away Charlatan and pulls away, value can still be had for second. It is important to take a closer look at the late pace ratings to see who is the best closer in this race.
Perhaps surprisingly it is the longest shot in the field, Express Train, who has shown the best closing kick. Though he has a nice late punch, his complete lack of early pace may leave him with too much to do. Independence Hall is only three points behind Express Train in late pace, but is 29 points higher than his rival in terms of early pace.
Independence Hall has both the class and the early speed to stay in contact early and benefit the most from a hot pace.
Look for Independence Hall to possibly run down Charlatan for second to and complete the exacta behind Nashville. Express Train's closing ability and high odds make him an interesting horse to consider for the back of trifectas and superfectas.
Determine who you like by taking a closer look at the Malibu PPs below, with the option to go full screen in the lower right corner of the window. Visit our free past performances page to view more free stakes PPs.