Fourstardave fair odds: Don't overlook this front-end threat

The Grade 1 Fourstardave Stakes has it all: Grade 1 winners, horses stretching out, horses cutting back, pace dynamics. That makes this one-mile turf race on Saturday at Saratoga a fun one to handicap.

And why not? As the first of four Grade 1 races anchored by the Whitney Stakes, the Fourstardave is part of a blockbuster 13-race card and is the second leg of the mandatory-payout Pick 5 and first leg of the $1 Pick 6.

The favorite Johannes is formidable in here, but 5-2 is the lowest I'd be willing to go to back this one shipping east after not having raced since Dec. 26.

Spirit of St Louis is the only horse in the field with multiple Grade 1 wins this year, but his losses have not been sterling. Because his biggest wins have come at 1 1/8 miles, I do not generally think of him as a miler, but he is 3-for-4 at this distance. 

I'm surprised Deterministic did not go to the Arlington Million (G1). Maybe that's a distance play given the 1 1/4-mile distance of that race, but his two efforts beyond nine furlongs were solid, and I think this is a tougher field. That said, trainer Miguel Clement is having a very good summer, and there is an element of confidence involved in choosing this spot.

Hopefully I've saved the best for last as the field's other Grade 1 winner, last year's Woodbine Mile winner Win For the Money, is my projected overlay. I like his running style against this group, projecting him to get a similar trip as that Woodbine Mile score, especially with his Mark Casse-trained uncoupled stablemate My Boy Prince stretching out from graded-stakes turf sprints such as the Jaipur (G1) and Highlander (G2).

Given that the morning-line prices of Think Big and Intellect are similar to Win for the Money's and knowing that Johannes, Spirit of St Louis and Deterministic are big names, I'd be shocked not to get my price on Win for the Money. I'll plan to bet him to win and key the other three Grade 1 winners while pressing with Johannes. The only other horse I potentially see adding value is Neat, who will be a long shot and has to have a better trip here than any of his last three races. It'd be almost impossible not to.