Fourstardave Handicap 2021: Odds and analysis

The Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap on Saturday at Saratoga drew a field of eight. In addition to the $500,000 in purse money, the one-mile race on grass is a win-and-you're-in qualifier for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar on Nov. 6.

The 6-year-old mare Got Stormy, who won the Fourstardave in 2019, will make her third straight appearance in the race and will be joined by two other female runners.

Here is a look at the full field with odds from Horse Racing Nation. The Fourstardave will be run as race 10 out of 11 with post time scheduled for 6:13 p.m. EDT.

1. Raging Bull (5-2 – Dark Angel – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 19: 7-4-3 - $1,546,750) This 6-year-old has three Grade 1 wins in his career. Raging Bull returned in 2021 at Keeneland in April with a two-length victory in the Makers Mark Mile (G1). Then in June at Belmont Park, the Chad Brown trainee missed winning the Poker (G3) by a head. Both races earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figurers. He lost to Got Stormy in the 2019 Fourstardave, but Brown seems to have the French-bred horse back in top form. This is one of the few important turf races in New York that Brown has yet to win. Top choice.

2. Whisper Not (10-1 – Poet’s Voice – Richard Baltas / Jose Ortiz – 11: 4-2-1 - $228,640) Whisper Not, who began his career racing in England, will ship east from the California barn of Richard Baltas. In April, he won the San Francisco Mile (G3) at Golden Gate for his first American stakes victory. His most recent effort was a fifth in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) in May. I always look twice when Baltas ships turf runners out of town, but this spot looks like too much to ask, especially following a layoff. Toss.

3. Daddy Is A Legend (12-1 – Scat Daddy – George Weaver / Manny Franco – 19: 5-3-5 - $645,210) This Pennsylvania-bred mare has been competing in graded stakes races for the last three years and has hit the board on several occasions. The 6-year-old had only two victories in that period of time and they came in allowance company with the most recent at Keeneland in April. Daddy Is A Legend was third in the Just A Game (G1) at Belmont Park in June. Not sure why Weaver would have her take on the boys in this Grade 1. Toss.

4. Casa Creed (6-1 – Jimmy Creed – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 20: 5-3-3 - $755,408) Casa Creed was entered recently in a turf sprint stake at Saratoga but scratched when he drew the far outside post in a full field. His last two starts were wins in turf stakes at six and seven furlongs. Before cutting back in distance, he specialized in mile races on the turf including the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), where he was not a factor. He stretches back out after winning the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont with a 105 Beyer. The Bill Mott trainee is in fine form right now, but maybe at his age he prefers to run shorter. Use underneath.

5. Set Piece (2-1 – Dansili – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 16: 9-1-1 - $433,744) Bred in Great Britain and owned by Juddmonte, his first six races were in Europe, where he won his first two starts. Now at age 5, he is in his best form with three wins in a row, including his first graded stake in the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs in June with a last-to-first move going 1 1/16 mile. Set Piece is certainly a horse who can find the winner’s circle with nine victories from 16 starts. Win contender.

6. Got Stormy (12-1 – Get Stormy – Mark Casse / Tyler Gaffalione – 29: 11-5-3 - $2,123,403) Now a 6-year-old, Got Stormy won the Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream Park in February to start 2021. A pair of fifth-place finishes have followed in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs and the Jaipur (G1) against the boys at Belmont. At her peak from 2019 to 2020, she became the only filly to ever win the Fourstardave in 2019 and was second the following year. Got Stormy also won a pair of Grade 1s in California during the period. Mark Casse also won the Fourstardave with World Approval in 2017. She will need to get back to her best form to be a win contender here, and maybe returning to one of her favorite tracks will help. Top 3 finish possible.

7. Field Pass (8-1 – Lemon Drop Kid – Mike Maker / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 20: 7-2-3 - $728,143) Field Pass had been struggling at the Grade 1 and 2 level until trainer Mike Maker dropped him down a notch in the Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup (G3) and he responded with a victory going a turf mile at Pimlico. Field Pass won three times in Grade 3s on the grass and on synthetic tracks. These connections are making all of the right moves at Saratoga, but this puts him back in Grade 1 competition. Toss.

8. Blowout (6-1 – Dansili – Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 12: 4-7-1 - $718,600) Blowout goes to the lead in almost every race and gets the inside post position, which should mean that she will break from the gate quickly. In her career, she has more second-place finishes than anything else and she faces male counterparts in a tough Grade 1. She might be in the race to ensure a fast pace for Raging Bull; both are owned by Peter Brant. But on the grass in New York, we have seen horses get loose on the lead and do very well – and she is trained by Chad Brown. Use underneath.

Summary: The 2021 running of the Fourstartdave is a battle of the sexes in that the field of eight contains three older turf mares. The queen of the trio is Got Stormy whose best form may be in the past. Blowout might be in the field as a rabbit for her stablemate Raging Bull, but speed can be very dangerous on the turf at Saratoga.

The win contenders are Set Piece and Raging Bull. Brad Cox has Set Piece in the best form of his career, riding a three-race win streak. Chad Brown has Raging Bull back at the top of his game. Brown has used the pacesetter with success in the past, so the edge goes to Raging Bull.