Fourstardave fair odds: Where to find value beyond the favorites

The Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga lost its biggest name when Master of The Seas scratched earlier this week, but a strong field of six remains, and more important, there is a wagering opportunity.

Master of The Seas would have been an overwhelming favorite here, and now the chalk will go to either his uncoupled stablemate from the barn of Charlie Appleby in Godolphin's Ottoman Fleet or E Five Racing's Carl Spackler, a Chad Brown trainee.

Both are capable of lying close to the pace, which will be essential because otherwise Strong Quality would be a gate-to-wire threat. But I am discounting his chances because he has declined in performance figures in each of his last two starts. And even with a soft pace here, I don't think he can rebound enough to outrun some really good horses.

I prefer Ottoman Fleet to Carl Spackler on the basis of both Ragozin Figures and the Brisnet Pace Ratings, which say the former will have more kick late even if racing up close.

But I really prefer More Than Looks to all of them despite the pace concerns. Trainer Cherie Devaux is giving a leg up to Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time in this colt's career, and traffic should not be a problem from the back in this compact field. There's every concern that Ottoman Fleet simply gets the jump on this one. But with the co-favorites in here and More Than Looks my preference, there is definitely value on the More Than Ready colt, who is making his 4-year-old debut after being beaten just two lengths in the Breeders' Cup Mile last November.

I will bet More Than Looks to win and in an exacta box with Ottoman Fleet, perhaps weighing Ottoman Fleet in the top spot a bit.