Fountain of Youth fair odds: Locked is loaded for 2024 debut

Can Dornoch end the seven-race losing streak of Remsen winners in their 3-year-old debuts? Will he even be favored to do so? 

These are pertinent questions awaiting answers in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, a 50-points-to-the-winner Kentucky Derby prep Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Let's start with the brass tacks of the morning line. If no. 5 Dornoch is the post-time favorite, then no. 8 Locked becomes a tremendous wagering opportunity, as he will easily be above my fair odds of 8-5. It is extremely hard to envision that, though.

Another factor is that Todd Pletcher cross entered Speak Easy in a Friday allowance race. If Speak Easy scratches from the Fountain of Youth, then that takes away a speed element to provide pace for Locked to close into. He is the most likely winner under any scenario, but he is more playable with this field as is.

Dornoch is just hard for me to like at the expected price, especially if Speak Easy remains in the field. The reality is that Remsen winners get overbet. The current losing streak is below. Even if you go back 14 years, the lone win is Mohaymen at 3-10 in the Holy Bull. Since the 1985 foal crop, the Remsen winner is 9-for-36 next out with a -50.9% return on investment.