Fountain of Youth 2025: Odds, analysis for Ky. Derby prep
Saturday’s Grade 2, $415,000 Fountain of Youth drew a field of eight. The Fountain of Youth is the second of three stops on the Gulfstream Park road to Kentucky Derby 2025 and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the top five finishers.
The Fountain of Youth field, which will contest the 1 1/16-mile distance, has a pair of horses who already have points on the Derby trail, and both have a victory. Sovereignty won the Street Sense (G3) in October and Burnham Square was the winner of the Holy Bull (G3) a month ago.
Here is the full-field analysis for the Fountain of Youth with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 13 of 14 with post time set for 5:42 p.m. EST.
1. Gate to Wire, 8-1. Munnings – Todd Pletcher / Dylan Davis – 5: 2-1-0 - $192,790. Gate to Wire ran the best race of his career when he won the seven-furlong Swale at Gulfstream by five lengths a month ago in his first start on the main track. His speed figure for the victory showed a huge increase and is one of the best in the Fountain of Youth field. Gate to Wire made his first three starts on the grass with a maiden win, a third in the Futurity (G3) at Aqueduct and a 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Pletcher has four wins in the Fountain of Youth, most recently with Forte in 2023. Live long shot.
2. Sovereignty, 9-5. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 3: 1-1-0 - $143,280. Sovereignty was last seen in October when he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs in his third start as a maiden. He rallied from last in a nine-horse field to win by five lengths and earn 10 Derby points. Sovereignty debuted at Saratoga in August and ran fourth, and then in September at Aqueduct he missed the top spot by a neck. The son of Into Mischief shows five workouts since December as he comes back from a four-month layoff. Win contender.
3. Burnham Square, 7-2. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Edgard Zayas – 4: 2-1-1 - $202,330. Burnham Square broke his maiden in his third try, which was at Gulfstream at the end of December, by nine lengths after stalking the early pace. He rallied from farther back when he won the Holy Bull, picking up 20 Derby points. The son of Liam’s Map began his career in a high-priced maiden claimer at Keeneland in October. Win contender.
4. McKellen, 20-1. McKinzie – Jose D’Angelo / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 1-1-0 - $41,700. McKellen was a debut winner at Gulfstream in October when he used a stalking trip to beat a field of nine. He then was second in an allowance again going a mile but thiwas closer to the pace. In January, McKellen was sixth in the Mucho Macho Man. He also is entered in an allowance at the Florida track Thursday. Toss.
5. Solid Left, 15-1. West Coast – Brian Lynch / Luis Saez – 2: 1-0-0 - $42,400. Solid Left got Lasix in his second start in January and became a maiden winner at Gulfstream by more than two lengths going the 1 1/16-mile distance. He also is entered in that allowance on Thursday. Luis Saez won the Fountain of Youth three times, including with Dornoch last year. Toss.
6. River Thames, 5-2. MacLean’s Music – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 2: 2-0-0 - $85,200. River Thames is undefeated in two starts to begin his career, and both were at Gulfstream. His maiden victory was in January by almost five lengths at 5-2, earning a speed figure that tops the Fountain of Youth. The New York-bred came back three weeks later going a mile and won by more than six lengths as the odds-on favorite in a field of eight. John Velazquez, who won the Fountain of Youth five times including in 2013 with Kentucky Derby winner Orb, stays on board. Top choice.
7. Neoequos, 12-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Irad Oritz Jr. – 5: 2-2-0 - $137,800. Neoequos is a Florida-bred who made five starts at Gulfstream, and four of them had a state-bred restriction. He got bumped and lost his rider in his first start in July and then got a maiden victory in August going five furlongs. A pair of seconds in Florida stallion series stakes followed to end his 2-year-old campaign. Those seconds were both behind the undefeated Rated by Merit. In January, he was an easy front-end allowance winner against state-breds going six furlongs. Irad Ortiz has two prior Fountain of Youth wins in 2018 and 2023. Live long shot.
8. Keep It Easy, 10-1. Hard Spun – Dale Romans / Corey Lanerie – 4: 2-0-0 - $207,671. Keep It Easy began his career at Churchill and got his maiden breaker in June at the Kentucky track by four lengths on the front end at 23-1. He stumbled badly in the Saratoga Special (G2) in July and lost all chance. Keep It Easy won the Ed Brown at Churchill in November by more than five lengths. He will go two turns for the first time as he makes his 2025 debut following a three-month layoff. Romans won this race in 2018 with Promises Fulfilled. Toss.
Summary: In this field of eight, seven of the horses show a victory in their most recent race. Sovereignty and Keep It Easy were stakes winners and will make their first starts of 2025 in the Fountain of Youth. Gate to Wire and Burnham Square also have stakes victories. Solid Left was a maiden winner, and River Thames and Neoequos won an allowance.
I have to favor runners with recent starts because horses have struggled on the Derby trail when they come back from a layoff and make their first start of 2025. Burnham Square and River Thames are in excellent form and are the horses to beat. River Thames, who faces a meaningful test in this race, could be a special horse and is the top choice.