Fair odds: Key changes make for a key play at Belmont Park
The sixth of six graded stakes Thursday at Belmont Park is not only the most competitive of the sextet but also will tie the record for most stakes on a Thursday card.
The Grade 2 Flower Bowl caps an all-graded stakes Pick 6 as part of a makeup card for the previous weekend's cancellations. Only Santa Anita Park on Dec. 26, 2024, had as many stakes races on a Thursday as Belmont will this week.
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The only Grade 1 among the six stakes is the Joe Hirsch Memorial Turf Classic, which kicks off an all-turf graded-stakes late double. I am more excited about the Flower Bowl, however, as I am against the favorite and have a clear opinion on the top choice plus an alternative.
A pair of horses exit the Diana Stakes (G1), winner Kathynmarissa and fourth-place finisher Cathedral. They were in different barns for that race but now Chad Brown trains both, and he's pressing a lot of buttons with Cathedral by stretching her out to 1 1/4 miles, naming Flavien Prat to ride and likely hoping for firmer ground than she got in the Diana.
Cathedral looked like a good thing when fourth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths by Gezora last year at Del Mar. But she is winless in four tries this year. One of those races was on synthetic, another at a mile and another on yielding going, so there is reason to think that stretching out on firm going for new connection could wake her up. At 9-2 on the morning line, I'll find out.
Sunlit Uplands is my alternative to Cathedral as she is a possible speed threat stretching out after pressing a fast pace in the Ballston Spa (G2) at Saratoga in her North American debut. I don't love that her best race came over soft going at seven furlongs, but if the Brown pair take money, then Sunlit Uplands could be worth a shot.
Kathynmarissa obviously can win, but it feels like last time was the time, and even that was no real bargain at 2.29-1. Either of the two already mentioned figure to be ahead of her turning for home, and I'll take my chances from there.
| Flower Bowl | Trainer | Jockey | ML | FO |
| 1. Evershed | A. Delacour | D. Davis | 12-1 | 20-1 |
| 2. Storm Miami | A. Green | J. Velazquez | 15-1 | 15-1 |
| 3. Sunlit Uplands | S. Williams | R. Ryan | 6-1 | 6-1 |
| 4. Gezora | W. Mott | J. Alvarado | 6-1 | 10-1 |
| 5. Esna | B. Meehan | J. Spencer | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 6. Fionn | B. Cox | M. Franco | 12-1 | 30-1 |
| 7. Opulent Restraint | W. Mott | J. Castellano | 30-1 | 125-1 |
| 8. Favorite Memory | C. DeVaux | K. Carmouche | 20-1 | 76-1 |
| 9. Kathynmarissa | C. Brown | J. Ortiz | 7-5 | 5-2 |
| 10. Cathedral | C. Brown | F. Prat | 9-2 | 3-1 |
| 11. Silvology | C. McGaughey III | A. Fresu | 20-1 | 50-1 |