Florida Derby may come up sloppy, so who will benefit?
Hallandale Beach, Fla.
In what has been a comparatively mild winter for most of the country, spring might throw a curveball in South Florida on Saturday. That is when one of the biggest preps for Kentucky Derby 2022 could be run on a very wet track.
“The forecast looks like it might be sloppy, which is now a new variable,” said trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who has been getting White Abarrio ready for this weekend’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby. “You like to keep as many variables as possible the same, if you can. But that’s out of our control. We’ll find out if he handles the slop.”
The National Weather Service said showers are likely with the possibility of a thunderstorm Saturday afternoon at Gulfstream Park. The chance of precipitation is said to be odds-on at 60 percent. That is on top of perhaps a quarter-inch of rain that has been predicted for Friday.
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“Remember, the weather is the same for all horses,” said Antonio Sano, who trains morning-line favorite Simplification.
But not all horses are the same for rainy weather. Sano is confident his Fountain of Youth (G2) winner could separate himself by doing just fine handling an off track.
“The horse has worked in slop, and it’s never a problem,” he said.
If the Florida Derby turns into a regatta, it will be a rarity on this season’s road to the Kentucky Derby. Of the 29 points preps run so far in the U.S., only the Jerome (sloppy sealed), the Smarty Jones (sloppy sealed), the Withers (G3, muddy) and the Tampa Bay Derby (G2, good) have been on something other than a fast track. Even the two preps on synthetic surfaces – the John Battaglia Memorial and El Camino Real Derby – were run on dry-weather days.
That does not mean horses have not been tested getting a little mud in their eyes. Or, if not mud, the dreaded kickback.
“He took dirt at Churchill,” Joseph said, referring to White Abarrio’s third-place finish last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). “Obviously, taking a lot of mud is a different scenario. He’s quick enough that if he breaks well, he doesn’t need to take any kind of dirt. He’s fast enough and has a lot of class. He should be able to put Tyler in a good spot.”
That would be jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who rode the Race Day colt for the first time last out in a victorious 3-year-old debut on Feb. 5 in the Holy Bull (G3).
Classic Causeway, who won two points preps at Tampa Bay Downs, comes into Saturday’s race off a 2 1/2-length win on the wet dirt in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is by Giant’s Causeway, whose progeny have a 13 percent strike rate when it comes to winning on off tracks.
That does not even take into account Classic Causeway’s front-running style, which means his rider Irad Ortiz Jr. could end up as the only jockey who does not have to change goggles.
“He’ll leave there running and go wherever he’s comfortable,” his trainer Brian Lynch said. “I don’t think a sloppy track would bother him too much. But you never know until you try.”
Most of the 11 would-be starters literally could be getting their feet wet in the Florida Derby for the first time. Other than Classic Causeway, only long shots O Captain, who won his debut by 9 1/4 lengths on a Gulfstream course rated good, and King of Truth, second in a claiming race over a good Keeneland surface, have had experience with something other than fast tracks.
That leaves handicappers to the guesswork of bloodlines. Simplification’s sire Not This Time, himself a Giant’s Causeway stallion, has produced offspring who have won 20 percent of their starts on off tracks. Sano also gains confidence in seeing his horse up close and noticing Simplification is balanced, not overly developed in any one area. That is a quality that he said might come in handy in a sloppy race.
“He’s a very ‘central’ horse,” he said. “He’s different than other horses. In the front, behind, in the middle, there’s not a problem with him.”
If avoiding the flying mud ends up being the way to win the Florida Derby, Joseph will hope White Abarrio is well positioned to have clean air in front of him. In his two route victories, he led the whole way in an allowance race last fall at Gulfstream, and he was never more than 1 1/2 lengths behind when he scored last out in the Holy Bull (G3) on Feb. 5 at Gulfstream.
“He’s a horse that could run any way,” Joseph said. “He can run on the lead. He can run second or third. The main thing is we just want him to get away from (the gate) cleanly and be in the clear. If he gets a similar trip to the last time, that’s all we can ask for.”