Florida Derby guide: Odds, analysis, PPs for 100-point prep
The Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park is just one of the three Kentucky Derby 2024 preps on Saturday offering 100 points to the winner.
Oaklawn also presents the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on Saturday, but the first of the three Kentucky Derby preps will be the $1.5 million UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan in Dubai. It’s just one of many lucrative races on the Dubai World Cup program. The $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) goes as the finale on a nine-race program at 12:35 p.m. EDT. It and the UAE Derby at 9:50 a.m. EDT may be seen on FS2.
The Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby may be viewed on FanDuel TV. CNBC and Peacock will also carry the signature event for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream, and FS2 will have coverage of the Oaklawn staple for sophomore runners.
We have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Florida Derby as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
You also may check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page, where there are downloadable PPs for the Florida Derby and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
Florida Derby best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frankie's Empire | 12-1 | 84 | 109 | 93 |
| 2 | Hades | 7-2 | 90 | 108 | 97 |
| 3 | Bail Us Out | 15-1 | 82 | 99 | 84 |
| 4 | Grand Mo the First | 15-1 | 82 | 103 | 97 |
| 5 | Real Macho | 20-1 | 87 | 104 | 101 |
| 6 | Le Dom Bro | 15-1 | 85 | 111 | 90 |
| 7 | Catalytic | 20-1 | 78 | 100 | 91 |
| 8 | Seminole Chief | 30-1 | 85 | 106 | 92 |
| 9 | Conquest Warrior | 8-5 | 84 | 107 | 93 |
| 10 | Fierceness | 3-1 | 105 | 122 | 106 |
| 11 | Iris’s Dream | 30-1 | 77 | 102 | 94 |
Looking at the pace
A fast pace is expected for the Florida Derby, and Fierceness is expected to vie for the lead with long shot Le Dom Bro. Hades should set up shop in the second flight alongside Seminole Chief.
Pace projector courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks for the Florida Derby
This week’s Super Screener has picks for far more than just the Florida Derby. It is focusing on the Arkansas Derby, where it is not getting cute and believes Timberlake is squarely the one to beat. However, Super Screener creator Mike Shutty said Dimatic is a long shot who could outrun his odds:
"(Dimatic) was no match for Timberlake in the Rebel (G2), but he did take another move forward in that race. His energy distribution and a pedigree that suggests he can handle 10-plus furlongs make him dangerous to move forward here at nine furlongs. He just keeps coming with no quit in him, making him an ideal use underneath in exotics."
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Ed DeRosa’s Florida Derby fair odds believe Fierceness is deserving of another chance after coming up short in the Holy Bull (G3), but his price will be low. He believes Frankie’s Empire and Seminole Chief are worthy of a wager in underneath rungs of the exotics.
DeRosa also has Dubai World Cup fair odds, and he believes Ushba Tesoro has a good chance to make it back-to-back wins in this event with Defunded figuring to get overlooked in the betting.
Matt Shifman’s Florida Derby analysis determined Conquest Warrior is a major threat to step up and score in a race that often goes a long way toward determining the Kentucky Derby winner.
Shifman also analyzed the Arkansas Derby, and he’s fading both Muth and Mystik Dan while buying into Timberlake as well as live long shots Liberal Arts and Time for Truth.
Brian Zipse's profile of Hades examines whether the 3-for-3 gelding can answer the bell again after upsetting the apple cart in the Holy Bull.
Jockey Flavien Prat joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod this week, and he discusses his recent Louisiana Derby (G2) victory aboard Catching Freedom as well as his assignment Saturday on Timberlake in the Arkansas Derby.
Here’s the field for the Florida Derby: