Ky. Derby prep fair odds: Long shot is key in Florida Derby
They say not to take a short price on a horse doing something for the first time, but that convention is tough to apply to the Kentucky Derby and its prep races. As these horses progress, they almost always are doing something for the first time. One example is they'll all be going 1 1/4 miles for the first time on May 3 at Churchill Downs.
Sovereignty, the 8-5 morning-line favorite for the Grade 1 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, not only stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time but he will do so without his regular jockey Junior Alvarado, who has ridden the Bill Mott trainee to consecutive graded-stakes victories.
With fair odds of 9-5, Sovereignty figures to be a slight underlay at the morning-line price, but he unquestionably is the horse to beat. Those aforementioned graded-stakes wins are among the best prep performances we've seen, and Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances identify Godolphin's homebred Into Mischief colt as the only closer in a field of speed and presser types. There is little to suggest here that the outside post or new jockey will be a concern given how the race sets up.
Still, there is opportunity here. Enterdadragon is 30-1 on the morning line and should be every bit of that if the race holds together. Winless in four stakes attempts and never within two lengths of a black-type win, Enterdadragon might look short on class, but his numbers are comparable with others behind Sovereignty. His lone dirt start was a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, where he rushed up after an awkward start. I'll gamble on this one, as will Doug Salvatore, one of the very best handicappers I know.