Florida Derby fair odds: The Puma will be overlooked again

It's hard to believe The Puma was favored over Chief Wallabee when both colts made their career debuts Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park. The former was the 2.1-1 choice and the latter was 5-2 when winning by 1 1/2 lengths over The Puma. It was 9 1/4 lengths back to third.

Both 3-year-olds have delivered on the promise of that maiden race, with The Puma finally breaking his maiden in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby after a third-place finish to Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Chief Wallabee went on to finish second to Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Commandment in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

Now all three of those colts plus Holy Bull (G3) winner Nearly meet in the Florida Derby (G1) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park in what is unquestionably the deepest Kentucky Derby prep to date.

The two primary pace horses in this 1 1/8-mile test are Redland Rebels and Gregarious. The former set the pace in the Tampa Bay Derby and was overhauled by three better horses, The Puma, Further Ado and Canaletto. If the track is playing forward on Saturday, I could see using Redland Rebels underneath. Gregarious has virtually no chance to win this race, but his presence helps The Puma.

From a wagering perspective, the top three choices have all the buzz and were clearly the public choices in the last Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed March 15. We know The Puma can hang with the likes of Chief Wallabee and Renegade, so him as the fourth choice here makes sense as the best bet.

Nearly is the one I'm least sold on. The Holy Bull has not come back all that productive, and I just do not think he is to the level of racing we saw in the Fountain of Youth. If you love him or even just like him, though, you're going to get a great price.