Florida Derby: Pedigree a key factor for distance and surface

The $1 million, Grade 1 Florida Derby concludes the state's series of preps for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The top four will be awarded a scale of 100-40-20-10 qualifying points for the 1 1/8-mile event.

Holy Bull (G3) victor White Abarrio, Fountain of Youth (G2) hero Simplification, and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Classic Causeway are among the competitive field of 11 3-year-old colts and geldings.

There's a 40 percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, so let's review the field, focusing on pedigree for surface and distance, plus recent performance and class. None of the entrants have run over an off track, but Classic Causeway, O Captain, and King of Truth have done well on good tracks. 

All speed ratings are from Brisnet, and statistics are from Equibase Race Lens.

Classic Causeway (7-2) moves up in class after solid winning efforts in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). The Brian Lynch trainee's last two breezes were in company with the older horses, stakes-placed Cool Quest, and allowance class Rockstar Ro.

Classic Causeway started a few lengths behind in both instances and was asked to rate before opening up under his own power. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and the stakes-winning son of Giant's Causeway will exit post two, and with no speed to his inside, he should get the perfect rail trip. Read his pedigree profile here. Win contender.

In his 3-year-old debut, White Abarrio (3-1) powered home a 4 1/2-length winner in the Holy Bull Stakes. Since the race, he has recorded a fast/slow breeze pattern, including a second-to-last five furlongs in 1:00.42 in company with allowance winner Stormy Pattern.

The pretty gray colt tracked his workmate around the turn and opened up without being asked. His final breeze was a bullet three-furlong "lung opener" in 34.96 seconds to hone his considerable speed.

By Race Day out of an Into Mischief mare, White Abarrio has a solid middle-distance pedigree, and Race Day gets an average 16 percent mud winners. Breaking from post seven, jockey Tyler Gaffalione should be able to get an outside stalking position without giving up much ground. Read his pedigree profile here. Win contender.

Simplification (5-2) had a nightmare trip in the Holy Bull but still closed for second place behind White Abarrio. He was vindicated in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, circling the field and opening up by 3 1/2-lengths. Antonio Sano gave the Not This Time colt a pre-race five-furlong work, the second-best of 31. Not this Time has 21 percent off-track winners. Simplification is out of a stakes-placed daughter of Candy Ride and hails from the family of the Champion Mare, Ashado. Note he breaks from post three and has tactical speed, so jockey Jose Ortiz should be able to work out a ground-saving trip. Read his pedigree profile here. Win contender.

The last-out maiden winner, Charge It (7-2), takes a significant jump in class and adds a furlong. After a long, dueling stretch drive in his debut, Charge It yielded to the more experienced Volcanic. That one returned to finish a distant third in the Sam F. Davis. In his second and last start, the Todd Pletcher trainee conquered a mediocre group of maidens by 8 1/2-lengths.

Charge It has been keeping good company in the mornings, squaring off with the older multiple Grade 2 winner Fearless, Louisiana Derby third-place finisher Pioneer of Medina, and Grade 1-placed Commandperformance. Charge It was asked to sit just off of his rivals in two instances. The remarkable thing was that the pretty gray colt outworked all of his rivals.

This classy son of Tapit has a superior mud pedigree and is out of a daughter of the remarkable Take Charge Lady. The mare's descendants include Champions Will Take Charge, Take Charge Brandi, plus Grade 1 winners Take Charge Indy, As Time Goes By, and Omaha Beach.

Charge It has big horseshoes to fill and will face quality speed in the Florida Derby. Additionally, Pletcher's last-out maiden winners facing graded stakes competition have won just 3 percent over the last five years but have hit the board 41 percent of the time. Dating back to 1976, no last-out maiden has won the Florida Derby. Exotics.

O Captain (30-1) made steady progress from the back of the pack, avoided two fallen horses, and sailed by tired rivals to grab third place in the Fountain of Youth at 80-1 odds.

The Gustavo Delgado trainee's speed ratings have improved in each start, and the son of Carpe Diem hails from a classy female family. His dam and three half-siblings own blacktype, and his second dam Countess Diana is a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner.

Although only 10 percent of Carpe Diem's offspring win over sloppy tracks, they hit the board 51 percent of the time. The extra distance is in O Captain's favor, and although he breaks from post nine, Joel Rosario should be able to work out a favorable trip since O Captain has tactical speed. Live longshot exotics.

Last year, Clapton (30-1) finished behind Cajun's Magic in two Florida Stallion Stakes races. However, he has hit the board in all four sprint starts against state-bred allowance types this year, his speed ratings improved in each start, and he won his last start by four lengths under a hand ride.

By Brethren, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Afleet Alex, Clapton should handle nine furlongs, and Brethren has 22 percent wet track winners. On the downside, the Juan Alvarado trainee adds two furlongs, breaks from post ten, and will be forced wide around the first turn. So while he won't finish the race after midnight, he's probably not going to change the world, either. Still, if he improves in this start, he could hit the lower exotics with a good trip.

The multiple graded stakes-placed Pappacap (10-1) is seeking a break-out victory. He has lost ground in the stretch of his last five starts and is coming off the worst performance in his career in the Risen Star Stakes.

By Gun Runner, out of a graded stakes-placed daughter of Scat Daddy, Pappacap has the pedigree to handle middle distances, and five of Gun Runner's eight starters over off tracks are winners, but I'm not convinced that dirt is his best surface.

The Mark Casse trainee will break from post 5 and may find himself shuffled around in traffic. Drawing a line through his poor showing in the Risen Star, Pappacap still has some of the lowest speed ratings in the field. Perhaps he can hit the lower exotics, but I'm taking a stand against. Toss.

Second-best to White Abarrio in an optional  claiming race, Simplification in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and a distant fourth in the Sam F. Davis behind Classic Causeway, Strike Hard (20-1) is up against it in the Florida Derby.

Junior Alvarado will have to hustle this son of Flashback out of post one, but Strike Hard isn't fast enough to get the lead, and his mud pedigree is average. The Matthew Williams trainee has a miler-oriented pedigree, and I don't see him being a factor. Toss.

Cajun's Magic's (30-1) first foray into graded stakes company was a so-so effort, netting him fifth place in the Holy Bull. He had every opportunity, but the Michael Yate's trainee lacked a late punch. He was a distant second best at seven furlongs and 1 1/16-miles against state-bred company, and this sprinter is up against it in the Florida Derby. Toss.

In his last start, Steal Sunshine (30-1) finished an even second against optional claimers at today's distance and was no threat to the winner, Skippylongstocking. However, that one proved to be no match against the likes of Simplification and Strike Hard in previous races. By Constitution, out of a daughter of Unbridled's Song, Steal Sunshine is capable at 1 1/8-miles and has a very good mud pedigree, but he currently lacks the class of these competitors. Toss.

King of Truth (50-1) is the Florida Derby "why" horse. After finishing a zipcode behind Strike Hard in an optional claiming race last December, trainer Amador Sanchez switched the son of Into Mischief to Tapeta and turf and was rewarded with two runner-up finishes against Starter Optional Claiming class runners. King of Truth is one of the best-bred colts in the field. His dam Oatsee is a Rene-de-Course (superior female), and her offspring include Preakness hero Shackford and Alabama (G1) heroine Lady Joanne. Although King of Truth has a good mud pedigree, his current form is a cut below. Watch for King of Truth if he stretches out on turf. Toss.

Analysis

The typical Florida Derby winner won their final start and gained ground in the stretch. Most had pacesetting/pressing styles. Favorites won only twice but hit the board five times. Two Audible and Orb won from off the pace.

Additionally, Orb won Fountain of Youth hero (2013), and Audible won the Holy Bull. They, along with Tiz the Law (2020), are the only trio in the last decade to win the Florida Derby after winning one of the Florida preps.

In seven of the last ten editions, longshot bombs at 10-1 or higher odds finished in the top four. This year, the 30-1 long shots O Captain and Clapton deserve a hard look and are worth including if you're playing multiple tickets. Chance It has a terrific chance to hit the board, and we could see a chalky superfecta. I'm hopeful that one of the longshot bombs will hit the board and went with O Captain to fulfill that role.

Simplification, White Abarrio, and Classic Causeway are graded stakes winners who fit the winning profile. In addition, state-bred allowance winner Clapton also fits the winning profile.

Four route races were held on an off-track this meet, with three pacesetters prevailing.

2. Classic Causeway (7-2)

7. White Abarrio (3-1)

3. Simplification (5-2)

9. O Captain (30-1)