Florida Derby fair odds: Let's cut the champ some slack

Losing the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at 1-5 was not how the connections of champion 2-year-old male Fierceness were looking to start their 3-year-old campaign, but on the plus side, at least it started.

That is more than can be said for Fierceness's Grade 1-winning stablemate Locked, who scratched at the gate of the Fountain of Youth (G2). And from many accounts, including owner Mike Repole's X account, Fierceness is training forwardly since that defeat.

That the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and fastest 2-year-old of 2023 is the most likely winner in Saturday's Florida Derby (G1) is not a news flash, but that he might still be worth a bet could surprise some people.

Oh, who am I kidding. Even with a competitive 11-horse field, it is hard to envision this horse being more than even money. So then the question becomes whether to value shop elsewhere in the win pool, or is there exotic opportunity?

Unfortunately, the obvious alternative is Conquest Warrior, but that will be obvious to everyone else as well. Seminole Chief could be an overlay off a gate-to-wire Tapeta performance that followed a rough-trip Withers (G3). He has a win over this track, though. Frankie's Empire could make noise from the rail.

The non-alternatives are Holy Bull winner Hades, who has to be overbet off that, and Fountain of Youth runner-up Le Dom Bro, who will have a tougher time sticking around against these. With both of them being underlaid, that could potentially make exactas underneath Fierceness worth playing, especially with Frankie's Empire and Seminole Chief catching our eye.

From a Kentucky Derby perspective, Fierceness could reassert himself as the favorite with an effort closer to his Breeders' Cup triumph. Other short prices in future-book wagering simply have not run close to that type of effort, so Fierceness showing he can do it as a 3-year-old at a farther distance would make him the Derby favorite in my mind.