Florida Derby 2022: Full-field odds and analysis
The $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park offers Kentucky Derby contenders the opportunity to compete for the top-level points (100-40-20-10) at a distance of a 1 1/8 miles.
With the Run for the Roses just 35 days away, this will be the last chance for these horses to gather qualifying points. This field has several horses who already have earned Derby points and look to improve their chances to get into the big race on the first Saturday in May.
Since the Derby points system began in 2013; Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming won the Florida Derby and also the Kentucky Derby.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Florida Derby, with the official track morning-line odds. Post time for race 14, the Florida Derby, is set for 6:38 p.m. EDT.
1. Strike Hard (20-1 – Flash Hard – Matthew Williams / Junior Alvarado – 7: 2-2-1 - $115,600 – 1 Derby point) Strike Hard won both of his races at Gulfstream Park and those were last year in a maiden and an allowance. This year, he was second in the Mucho Macho Man and fourth in the Sam F. Davis after a wide trip from 12th. Toss.
2. Classic Causeway (7-2 – Giant’s Causeway – Brian Lynch / Irad Ortiz, Jr. – 5: 3-1-1 - $511,100 – 66 Derby points) Classic Causeway came back running in 2022 with two big pace-setting victories on the Derby trail at Tampa Bay Downs. Both times he controlled the race on the front end and drew off convincingly down the stretch. He now will return to the races a week shy of a month since the Tampa Derby (G2). On the other side, that will give him an extra week before the Run for the Roses. The one to beat.
3. Simplification (5-2 – Not This Time – Antonio Sano / Jose Ortiz – 6: 3-1-1 - $411,350 – 54 Derby points) Simplification took control of the Gulfstream road to the Kentucky Derby when he rallied from behind to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) by more than three lengths earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 96. He won the Mucho Macho Man with a front-end effort in January and then was second in the Holy Bull (G3) in February. We know trainer Antonio Sano from his careful handling of Gunnevera, who was third in the Florida Derby in 2017, seventh in the Kentucky Derby, and then went on to win $5.5 million in his career. Top choice.
4. King of Truth (50-1 – Into Mischief – Amador Sanchez / Jose Morelos – 6: 1-3-1 - $38,144 – 0 Derby points) King of Truth broke his maiden at Belterra Park as a 2-year-old and then was claimed away from Wesley Ward for $50,000 after running second at Keeneland. Most recently, he has a pair of seconds at Gulfstream in races on the Tapeta and the grass. Toss.
5. Pappacap (10-1 – Gun Runner – Mark Casse / Edwin Gonzalez – 7: 2-2-1 - $600,000 – 14 Derby points) Pappacap won his first two races as a juvenile with a maiden score at Gulfstream and then the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. He started five times since in graded stakes but has not found the winner’s circle again, although he hit the board three times. Trainer Mark Casse will move him back to the Florida track after a disappointing eighth-place finish in the Risen Star (G2). He left Fair Grounds and has been training at Casse’s Farm in Florida. A form reversal will be needed to find his best race. Use underneath.
6. Charge It (7-2 – Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez– 2: 1-1-0 - $42,400 – 0 Derby points) Charge It stirred up quite a bit of attention since he broke his maiden at Gulfstream by more than eight lengths in his second start for Todd Pletcher. He is a home-bred son of Tapit out of I’ll Take Charge. His dam is out of the blue-hen mare Take Charge Lady that produced Will Take Charge amongst others. I’ll Take Charge sold for $2.2 million as a yearling. Both of Charge It’s starts were at a mile distance and were front-end efforts. He was assigned a 93 Beyer for his victory. Interesting prospect.
7. White Abarrio (3-1 – Race Day – Saffie Joseph, Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione– 4: 3-0-1 - $240,850 – 12 Derby points) White Abarrio won his only race of 2022 in the Holy Bull when he pressed the pace and then ran away from Simplification and Mo Donegal to a margin of more than four lengths while earning a 97 Beyer. He’s a bit of a wild card in this field in that he was a front-end winner of an allowance at Gulfstream and chose to press the pace in other races. Yet with either running style, White Abarrio flashed plenty of talent. He won the Holy Bull with a little bit more than two months off between races and comes back here in about two months also. Win contender.
8. Cajun’s Magic (30-1 – Cajun Breeze – Michael Yates / Jesus Rios – 6: 2-3-0 - $240,100 – 0 Derby points) This Florida-bred gelding was last seen in the Holy Bull when he stepped up from a series of state-bred races, including three in the Stallion Series. The move to the Derby trail resulted in a non-threatening fifth-place finish. He has been off since that Feb. 5 stakes at Gulfstream Park. Toss.
9. O Captain (20-1 – Carpe Diem – Gustavo Delgado / Joel Rosario – 3: 1-0-2 - $75,300 – 10 Derby points) O Captain was a debut winner at Gulfstream for Gustavo Delgado in August as a 2-year-old. He came back on Jan. 1 in the Limehouse, where he was third, and then moved onto the Derby trail in the Fountain of Youth last month when he broke slowly and rallied from last to again finish in the show spot. Use underneath.
10. Clapton (30-1 – Brethren – Juan Alvarado / Emisael Jaramillo – 8: 1-2-2 - $93,550 – 0 Derby points) This Florida-bred has run seven of his eight starts against state-breds at Gulfstream. The only race that he won was a maiden special weight against open company in the summer of his 2-year-old campaign in his second start. Clapton had only one start around two turns last year and has only sprinted since then. Toss.
11. Steal Sunshine (30-1 – Constitution – Bobby DiBona / Luis Reyes – 4: 1-1-0 - $35,750 – 0 Derby points) Steal Sunshine had one victory in four career starts, and that came in a maiden claimer at Gulfstream. This year he had a fifth and a second in allowance races at the Florida track. Toss.
Summary: The Florida Derby field has three serious win contenders in Classic Causeway, Simplification and White Abarrio heading to the race after 2022 Derby trail victories.
Classic Causeway and Simplification will meet for the first time on the racetrack after winning three of the four Derby trail points races in Florida. Between the pair of 3-year-olds, they have 120 Derby points and rank Nos. 3 and 6 on the overall points list. Now they both look for a coveted victory in a 100-point race that so often has pointed to success in the Kentucky Derby.
Expect White Abarrio to be forwardly placed after a very fast blow-out breeze going three furlongs in :34.96 at Gulfstream on Tuesday. If that is the case, Classic Causeway should face more pressure on the front end than in his last two facile victories. Therefore, Simplificiation should get the best pace scenario and will be the top choice to win the Florida Derby.