Florida Derby 2021: Odds and analysis

A field of 11 will contest the $750,000 Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday as the 3-year-olds use this nine-furlong stake as their last chance to accumulate qualifying points for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. With the highest points available (100-40-20-10) on the Derby trail, the top two finishers are likely to qualify.

Since its debut in 1952, the Florida Derby winner has gone on to victory in the Kentucky Derby 15 times, with the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017, Nyquist in 2016, and Orb in 2013. In total, 24 starters from the Florida Derby have won the big race on the first Saturday in May.

Here is a full field analysis for the Florida Derby, which is carded as the last race out of 14, with the official Gulfstream Park morning-line odds.

1) Nova Rags (12-1 – Union Rags – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 2-1-0 - $110,650) After two very good performances at Tampa, a win in the Pasco and then a second in the Sam F. Davis (G3), Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott opted to skip the Tampa Bay Derby and go to Gulfstream. The Sam F. Davis earned him four Derby points. Nova Rags was a rare debut winner on the dirt for Mott as a 2-year-old, which certainly pointed to the talent of this son of Union Rags. His preferred running style is to stalk the pace. Live longshot.

2) Quantum Leap (20-1 – Pioneerof the Nile – Ian Wilkes / Miguel Vasquez – 3: 1-0-1 - $34,730) It took Quantum Leap three tries to break his maiden by a neck, which he did at Gulfstream in a nine-furlong race on Feb. 20. He will have to race without Lasix in the Florida Derby. Toss.

3) Jirafales (30-1 – Social Inclusion – Gustavo Delgado / Edgard Zayas – 3: 1-0-0 - $35,910) The son of the speedy sprinter Social Inclusion was a debut winner of a Florida-bred maiden special weight with a big closing move. Trainer Gustavo Delgado moved him to Gulfstream's Derby trail, where he has finished fifth twice. In both of those, he was far behind and the extra distance will not make the task any easier. The addition of blinkers last time did not help as he once again he had trouble getting out of the starting gate. Toss.

4) Southern Passage (30-1 – Super Saver – Dale Romans / Corey Lanerie – 8: 1-2-1 - $35,910) Southern Passage was last seen running second behind the highly regarded Prevalence in an allowance at Gulfstream earlier this month. The son of Super Saver has only a maiden victory to his credit and that came as a 2-year-old for a $50,000 tag at Churchill Downs. Toss.

5) Known Agenda (5-1 – Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 2-1-1 - $104,600) Future Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher got an eye-catching performance out of Known Agenda when he rebounded from a disappointing fifth in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. The move to Gulfstream produced an 11-length victory in a nine-furlong allowance and earned the son of Curlin another try on the Derby trail. Pletcher is a five-time winner of the Florida Derby, with four winners since 2014, including 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. With no Derby points yet, he will need a top-two finish to make it to the first Saturday in May. Win contender.

6) Sigiloso (30-1 – Khozan– Antonio Sano / Luis Reyes – 4: 1-0-0 - $32,260) Sigiloso will make the move from turf to dirt in the Florida Derby. His last two starts produced a fourth and a fifth in stakes on the grass at Gulfstream. He did debut on the main track and ran a distant fifth in an eight-horse field. The son of Khozan broke his maiden against Florida-breds. Toss.

7) Greatest Honour (6-5 – Tapit – Shug McGaughey / Jose Ortiz – 6: 3-1-2 - $351,940) Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey will continue to prepare Greatest Honour for the Kentucky Derby on the same path that he used with Orb in 2013. He won his last three starts at Gulfstream moving from a maiden score to the Holy Bull (G3) and then the Fountain of Youth (G2), which has earned him 60 Derby qualifying points, currently third on that list. His last two wins came after an impressive turn of foot during a closing in the final turn, each time easily handling the competition. However, that running style has not produced flashy speed figures. He certainly will be a heavy favorite and looms as the one to beat. Top choice.

8) Soup and Sandwich (20-1 – Into Mischief – Mark Casse / John Velazquez  – 2: 2-0-0 - $42,875) Soup and Sandwich backed up his seven-length debut victory in a Florida-bred race at Gulfstream with a two-turn allowance win at Tampa for Hall of Famer Mark Casse. The Live Oak home-bred son of Into Mischief, who likes to be part of the early going, will need to take another step forward to contend for the top spot. He certainly is a contender to be part of the exotics. Live long shot.

9) Collaborate (6-1 – Into Mischief – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 1-0-0 - $27,400) In his second career start, Collaborate romped over a field of 11 at the end of February. Going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, he won that maiden race on the front end and handily opened up to a 12-length advantage at the finish. Now trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. will make the ambitious move to this Grade 1 on the Derby trail. Toss.

10) Spielberg (4-1 – Union Rags – Bob Baffert / Javier Castellano – 8: 2-3-1 - $413,200) Spielberg has earned 17 Derby points with his consistent performances. He has two career wins in a maiden at Del Mar and then in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He has been a bit of an in and outer with a couple of fourth-place finishes mixed in with three very competitive performances. Last time out he was second to the unbeaten Essential Quality. He’s not one of trainer Bob Baffert’s top 3-year-olds, but he cannot be ignored in this field. Use underneath.

11) Papetu (15-1 – Dialed In – Antonio Sano / Emisael Jaramillo – 7: 2-1-1 - $116,425) This winner of his first two career starts at Gulfstream in the summer as a 2-year-old has raced only in stakes since then. Once Papetu returned to the Florida track, he was second in the Mucho Macho Man, fourth in the Holy Bull, and third in the Fountain of Youth. Those finishes yielded 11 Derby points. The move to 1 1/8 miles should not hurt him, but he is an unlikely win candidate. Use underneath.

Summary: There are only three stakes winners in the Florida Derby field of 11 – Greatest Honour, Nova Rags and Spielberg. The nine-furlong distance certainly will help Greatest Honour, giving him more time to unleash his closing run that has been so effective at Gulfstream. He is going to be very hard to beat if his current form holds up. Nova Rags and Speilberg are logical contenders to finish in the trifecta and superfecta.

At odds of 20-1 on the morning line, Soup and Sandwich is a must-use horse in the exotics. His has done nothing wrong in his two starts and gets the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.