Flightline is this generation's fastest horse through 3 starts
Since 2004, 58 horses scored at least a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden special weight race in their career debuts. The most recent to do it, Flightline, became the 16th to win all three of his next career starts when he won the Malibu Stakes Sunday at Santa Anita Park.
The Grade 1 win capped a historic treble for the Tapit colt, as he became only the sixth horse in the period to record three triple-digit Beyers from three career starts. Not only that, but his average Beyer Speed Figure of 112.33 is the best in the aforementioned period.
| Horse | Average Beyer through 3 starts | Record next 3 starts |
| Flightline | 112.33 | ? |
| Discreet Cat | 111.00 | 3: 1-0-2 |
| Roman Threat | 105.67 | 3: 0-0-0 |
| Lost in the Fog | 104.67 | 3: 3-0-0 |
| Atreides | 104.00 | 2: 1-0-0 |
| Justify | 104.00 | 3: 3-0-0 |
What happens next is anyone’s guess. Both Lost in the Fog and Justify went on to win their next three starts. The former stayed sprinting and won 10 in a row before losing the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The latter, like Flightline, tried Grade 1 company in his third career start and won the Santa Anita Derby before going on to win the Triple Crown. Flightline trainer John Sadler hinted that his star colt could try two turns next out.
Historically, the waters have gotten deeper for these brilliant debut types. They won 66.5 percent of their first 3 races but only 26.6 percent of their races afterward.
Only 10 of the 58 horses recorded a debut Beyer of at least 105, with Maclean’s Music topping the list with a whopping 114 before never racing again. The other nine are led by Discreet Cat, who improved 6 points to a 112 in his second career start. Flightline improved 9 points to a 114. The only other horse of the 10 to improve from a 105 or better second time out was Charlatan, who popped a 106 after a 105 debut. Discreet Cat and Flightline both improved again in their third career starts, but Charlatan regressed to a 96.
Before Flightline, Discreet Cat had the highest Beyer Speed Figures in his second and third career starts (112 and 115, respectively) of any horse who debuted with at least a 100 Beyer. Flightline eclipsed those numbers with 114 and 118 figures, respectively.
Of all the horses to top 100 on debut, though, it probably is Curlin (for now) who went on to the best career. He did not win the Triple Crown as Justify did, but he did go on to win the Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic as a 3-year-old en route to his first of two Horse of the Year titles.
Beyer Speed Figures were created by Andrew Beyer, whose Beyer Associates produces them exclusively for the Daily Racing Form.