Fleur de Lis fair odds: 2 rivals could upset Thorpedo Anna

I see Thorpedo Anna as a more likely winner of the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes than I did the La Troienne (G1). But the rub with celebrity horses, even when you like their chances, is the public still often overbets them.

Little went right for Thorpedo Anna eight weeks ago on Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill Downs, as she finished last of seven at 2-5 to snap a four-race win streak that had included a trio of Grade 1 wins, including the Breeders' Cup Distaff, to cap her horse-of-the-year and champion 3-year-old filly season.

That resume is going to attract money for awhile, which is why it is hard to get excited about her likely rebound in the Fleur de Lis. I was encouraged that trainer Kenny McPeek returned Thorpedo Anna to the work tab for steady morning drills leading into the Fleur de Lis, and the pace scenario in this race seems more to her liking. But at 4-5 fair odds she is still an underlay.

Enter Royal Spa and Gin Gin, two of Thorpedo Anna's four rivals in the Fleur de Lis on Saturday at Churchill, and by far the most likely alternatives to the horse of the year. Royal Spa ran a career best when winning the Shawnee Stakes (G3) last out. Gin Gin was second that day after setting a fast pace, but that might not be the case in the Fleur de Lis.

My biggest concern with both alternatives is that the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race seems more up Thorpedo Anna's alley than anyone else's. But at the expected prices and Thorpedo Anna conceding three pounds to her rivals, I'll overlook that concern.

From a multi-race wagering standpoint, unless there is a long shot your'e singling in another leg, there is no reason to use all three horses here. Either single Thorpedo Anna if you're a believer or use the other two. The same applies vertically where some stand is needed against one of these three horses. Maybe the toteboard does that work for you. If Gin Gin ends up taking a lot more money than Royal Spa, then Royal Spa is the choice, and vice-versa.