Fleur de Lis 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

The Grade 2, $250,000 Fleur de Lis, which will be run at a mile and an eighth on Saturday at Churchill Downs, attracted a field of six with three formidable Grade 1 winners bidding for a "Win and You're In" spot toward the Nov. 2 Breeders' Cup Distaff.

The Fleur de Lis goes as Race 7 on a "Downs After Dark" card headlined by the Stephen Foster (G2). Post time for the fillies and mares is 9:05 pm ET.

Here's a look at the field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:

Skeptic [ML 20-1 – Tapit – G. Arnold II/B. Hernandez Jr. – 11: 4-1-2 - $230,262] In her second start of 2019, Skeptic was an allowance winner at Churchill Downs coming back from a 3-year-old season in which she won the Monmouth Oaks (G3). Her rivals here hold a significant class edge. A nice result would mean hitting the trifecta even in a short field. Toss.

She’s A Julie [ML 8-5 – Exclusive Quality – S. Asmussen/R. Santana Jr. – 12: 6-2-1 - $878,130] The Steve Asmussen barn has been winning the biggest races on the biggest stages all year long, including She’s A Julie’s victories in the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn Park and the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill. The 4-year-old affectionately named after Asmussen's wife loves the Churchill dirt, over which she sports a 5: 3-1-0 record. That makes her the horse to beat. The top choice.

Elate [ML 2-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – W. Mott/J. Ortiz – 14: 5-5-2 - $1,545,325] It would be easy to look at the past performances for Elate and see three recent races where she failed to win at short odds. But you must also note that two of those races were Grade 1s, and the other was a Grade 2 race in which she lost to the division leader Midnight Bisou. There is no Midnight Bisou in here, but She’s a Julie and Blue Prize are both Grade 1 winners, meaning Elate might bring more value. A win in this race would move her back among the division leaders, and Mott has been looking for more distance as she goes 1 1/8 miles again. Contender.
 

Go Google Yourself [ML 10-1 – Into Mischief – P. McGee/TBA – 14: 4-4-3 - $253,610] This 4-year-old filly has been in fine form lately with two allowance wins and a second in a Grade 2 at three tracks. Now she must step up to try win a graded stakes race for the first time in a top-heavy field. Underneath player.

Blue Prize [ML 3-1 – Pure Prize – I. Correas IV/J. Bravo – 18: 7-7-2 - $1,112,753] The millionaire has only twice failed to hit the board in her career highlighted by multiple graded stakes victories. In October, she won Keeneland's Spinster (G1) to top a season that included a score in the 2018 Fleur de Lis. She went on to finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Distaff over this surface. Blue Prize returned to be third off the layoff behind She's a Julie in the La Troienne. This 6-year-old mare is known to have a spirited personality on the track. At her best she is a threat to win. Board hitter.

Auspicious Babe [ML 30-1 – Bodemeister – D. Stewart/F. Geroux – 12: 3-2-1 - $168,780] This 4-year-old is winless in 2019 after three tries in allowance races and an eighth-place finish in the Bayakoa. On a positive note, she has done her best running at Churchill Downs, where she's 6: 3-1-1, encompassing all her career victories. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a reputation for springing upsets in big races, and a Grade 2 win by Auspicious Babe would certainly add to that list. Toss.