Flatter: Maidens should not be racing in the Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby 2025 has a Tar Heels situation on its hands, and his name is Publisher.

It was barely a month ago North Carolina was rewarded for its mediocre, men’s basketball season when it got into the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee was chaired by the Heels’ athletic director, and we were told he had no undue influence. Riiiiight.

At least in the case of Publisher, who never has led a race at any call let alone won one, his invitation to the Derby is merely the result of a flawed points system. It is not like Gus King Stables or Brereton Jones’s heirs were in a smoke-filled room cutting deals to get their horse into the field. This son of American Pharoah benefitted from a formula that grades on a built-in curve.

Kentucky Derby 2025 also has a Mountaineers situation on its hands, and his name is Baeza.

When Carolina got in the 68-team dance, West Virginia was conspicuous by its absence. The governor there even got into the act when he ordered an investigation. Never mind the state’s flagging economy, drug abuse and child poverty. For crying out loud, this was basketball.

While Publisher sits safely at no. 14 on the qualifying ladder, Baeza languishes at 24, needing four dropouts to get in the starting gate in 15 days. No word yet on whether Lee and Susan Searing and Grandview Estate will call on West Virginia’s bureaucracy to look into this. I kind of doubt it.

Let’s just put it simply in writing. Maidens should not be in an oversubscribed Kentucky Derby. Period.

This is not to suggest Publisher cannot win the race. Of course he could. If the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby had been extended an eighth of a mile to the Kentucky Derby distance, and if he could have saved ground, maybe he would have made a race of it against bobbing and weaving Sandman.

Publisher is 40-1 in Las Vegas futures. UAE Derby (G2) winner Admire Daytona can be had for 50-1, Bob Baffert’s maiden victor Madaket Road 60-1 and allowance winner Flying Mohawk 80-1. It is easier to make a case for Publisher than those other three, but his ability win the Derby does not mean he should there any more than Amy Schumer should be doing stand-up in a children’s library. She would be the funniest, most entertaining presence in the room, but she would not belong.

I confess I would love to write the story of Publisher pulling off the big upset next month. It would be a hell of a yarn. Only three maidens ever have won the Kentucky Derby. With immortal Isaac Murphy riding, Buchanan was the first in 1884. After going 0-for-6 as a 2-year-old, Sir Barton began what would be known as the first Triple Crown in 1919 by getting his first-ever win via the Derby. It has been 92 years since Brokers Tip was the last first-timer to wear the roses.

Back in those days, field-size limits were evolving. The Kentucky Derby was not exactly an all-comers race, but it did not have the same 20-horse cap that it does now. After nine scratches, Brokers Tip had to defeat only 12 rivals in 1933. That was when his rider Don Meade infamously got into a fight with Head Play’s jockey Herb Fisher during the race. The margin in that cross between polo and mixed martial arts was a nose.

Records are incomplete before 1937, but in the 88 years since, 12 maidens have run in the Derby. Bodexpress in 2019 was the most recent. He finished 18th, but even if he won, he should not have been in.

There ought to be a rule, right? Maybe something that says a maiden cannot get in the Derby ahead of a horse who actually has been in a winner’s circle somewhere. Maybe even prioritize horses who have won Derby preps. Built, whose connections seem like they are leaning toward the Pat Day Mile (G2), won the Gun Runner Stakes, the 11th points race on the qualifying road. It may be a moot point, but he should have priority over Publisher.

King and the Joneses and Asmussen did not write the rules, so they cannot be blamed for being tantalized by an invitation to the Derby. The fault lies instead with the loophole in the system.

It also did not help that the so-called California rule was imposed this year, reputedly in response to paltry fields in Santa Anita’s biggest prep races. It was why Baeza’s points were reduced for finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby. If the race had its full value, this would not even be an issue. Instead, his connections were punished for taking part in a Grade 1 race from which anonymous absentees really were to blame.

Trainer Ron Moquett suggested raising the number of points awarded to preps with bigger fields. It is an intriguing idea, but it might be flawed if a race full of mediocre horses were to be graded higher than, say, a California stakes that spawned Journalism and the Derby favoritism that comes with him.

Instead, the better idea might be to serve notice that races attracting tiny fields one year would be kicked off the Derby trail the next. That way there would be plenty of time for trainers working out calendars for their Triple Crown candidates.

Since the points system for qualifying was launched 12 years ago, three maidens have found their way into the Derby starting gate. Trojan Nation in 2016, Sonneteer in 2017 and Bodexpress six years ago were the first group since 1998. That is just too many 0-fers in America’s biggest, most prestigious race.

Think about it. Should the Kentucky Derby really be a race that might as well be an n1x in past performances?

Oh, here is a little more food for thought. The condition book for the Pimlico spring meet says “no horse which earns purse money in the Kentucky Derby shall be denied the opportunity to enter and start in the Preakness Stakes.”

How would a fifth-place maiden look May 17 at Baltimore?

Ron Flatter’s column appears Friday mornings at Horse Racing Nation. Comments below and at RonFlatterRacingPod@gmail.com are welcomed, encouraged and may be used in the feedback segment of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which also is posted every Friday.