Flatter: Journalism, Sovereignty could create award chaos

When the whole universe was in a hot, dense state, there used to be a really popular thing called network television. Back when it was in black and white, there was a late-night host named Jack Paar. He was a mercurially incandescent man who never took it for granted that he had cynics among the insomniacs who watched him by the millions.

“You must believe me when I tell you this,” Paar would say. “If you don’t, we have nothing.”

Division rankings: Nysos flies under Eclipse radar.

It is in that spirit that I suggest we could be witnessing an unprecedented phenomenon in horse racing. If the Pacific Classic and Travers and Breeders’ Cup Classic turn out just right, then the 2025 horse of the year could be the first who was not the champion in his or her division.

You must believe me when I tell you this. If you don’t, then this three-legged parlay bet will not cash.

Consider this. Journalism stays home in California and beats older horses in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. And then he does it again in the Goodwood California Awesome Crown Again Stakes or whatever that September race is called now at Santa Anita. And then he climaxes his campaign by winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With the Haskell last weekend, those four consecutive Grade 1 victories would make Journalism’s case to be horse of the year unimpeachable.

At the same time on a different path, Sovereignty could win the Travers (G1) to go with his Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes victories over Journalism. Regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup, he could win the Eclipse Award as the champion 3-year-old male. The year-long domination of his peers might make the division title a slam dunk for Sovereignty, especially if he lost by, say, just a nose on Journalism’s home course.

“Has this ever happened before?” Paar would have asked. “Hugh? José? Can someone check on this?”

Well, we had to wait until Al Gore invented the internet so we could look up who Hugh and José were. It also says no, this championship oddity has not happened before.

I looked it up all by myself. Since the Eclipse Awards were launched in 1971, and going back through the various annual honors bestowed since 1936 and even the retrospective championships researched by BloodHorse dating to 1887, every horse of the year also was designated the best in his or her division.

Between the Pacific Classic and the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, we are a unique Pick 3 away from an unprecedented addition to racing history. What are the odds? Because that might make for a shrewd wager.

Retired turf writer Jay Privman still has an Eclipse Awards vote, something he has had for decades through his career at Daily Racing Form. He is not denying the races could come out this way, but he does not buy the resulting paradox.

“If you’re going to vote for Journalism in that hypothetical for horse of the year, to me by definition, you would be voting for him for 3-year-old champion as well,” he told me on my podcast. “I don’t see a bifurcated split like that happening. To me, you vote for one or the other for both.”

Even if Sovereignty beat Journalism in two of their three showdowns, one on the biggest stage in U.S. racing, and perhaps narrowly lost as a visitor in Journalism’s season-ending home game.

“Then vote for (Sovereignty) for both titles,” Privman said. “Vote for him for 3-year-old champ and for horse of the year. Splitting that up to me doesn’t make much sense.”

Mark Midland, the boss at Horse Racing Nation, has had an Eclipse vote for a few years now. He does not reject the dichotomy.

“I think a lot of it, too, would come down to emphasis points,” he said. “Does Sovereignty get beat in the Travers, or does he win by daylight in the Travers? And how close the Classic comes and all that stuff. But yeah, it makes it fun.”

One might expect an Eclipse voter or two to penalize one of these horses for ducking the other. But who is ducking whom? The idea that Journalism is staying home to face older horses just to avoid Sovereignty makes about as much sense as walking Mookie Betts to get to Shohei Ohtani. Besides, didn’t Sovereignty’s connections unilaterally call off the Triple Crown this year when they kissed off the Preakness? The idea of avoidance here is just a canard.

Trying to find any kind of precedent for this was predictably difficult. I remember when Arrogate was named the world’s best Thoroughbred in 2016 and 2017 by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, even though he was not horse of the year in his home country. He lost to California Chrome and Gun Runner. But there were separate sets of voters for those honors. The various Eclipse Awards are decided by a common group of people including Privman and Midland.

This sort of thing happened four times in pro basketball. Bill Russell in 1958, 1961 and 1962 and Dave Cowens in 1973 were named the most-valuable player even though they did not make the all-NBA first team those years. That was in part because players voted for MVPs back then, and the media made the all-league selections.

Hey, Miss Colombia was Miss Universe of 2015 for all of 2 1/2 minutes before Steve Harvey got buzzed with a strike. And “La La Land” was the best picture of 2017 for, what do you know, 2 1/2 minutes before someone figured out Warren Beatty botched his line at the Oscars. At least a Journalism and Sovereignty split that might defy logic would not require Britney Eurton to repossess any trophies this winter at The Breakers in Florida.

Then again, Sovereignty is the offshore futures favorite to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so maybe this whole exercise was like the entire arc of a TV show being a weird dream.

Maybe, Mr. Paar, we had nothing here all along. We will know in a little more than three months.

Ron Flatter’s column appears Friday mornings at Horse Racing Nation. Comments below and at RonFlatterRacingPod@gmail.com are welcomed, encouraged and may be used in the feedback segment of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which also is posted every Friday.