Flatter: Is chalk the only way to play Kentucky Derby preps?

Hallandale Beach, Fla. 

Pity the value hunter when it comes to Kentucky Derby 2022 preps. The bigger they come, the chalkier they fall.

Fair warning to anyone who dares to bet against Secret Oath, Simplification or Tiz the Bomb in Saturday’s win-and-you’re-ins. The last time a favorite did not win a Derby points race in America, mask mandates were still widespread, Major League Baseball was in a lockout, and Putin had just invaded Kyiv.

That was the end of February, when Un Ojo cashed at 75-1 at Oaklawn. Then came March, when Simplification at 5-2 was the longest shot to win a prep. That was here at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth (G2). In like a blanched lion. Out like a chalk-covered lamb.

Morello, Forbidden Kingdom, Simplification, Tiz the Bomb, Classic Causeway, Epicenter and Slow Down Andy. Seven favorites. Seven winners. Now they have been wheeling back to try and stand out again these last three weekends of the biggest preps.

This lather-rinse-repeat business is nearly on pace to set a record. Since Churchill Downs established its qualifying-points system nine years ago, favorites have won 44 percent – 180 of 411 – of the designated Derby preps.

Now for the fun part. In two of those years the chalk won more often than not. Want to hazard a guess what those years were? They had something very significant in common. I will go all hidden-ball trick here and leave that answer at the foot of a downward scroll.

In 2021-22, between the U.S.-Dubai, Japan and Europe roads to the Derby, favorites have won 22 of the 41 preps, including 16 of 29 in America, 2 of 4 across the Pacific and 4 of 8 over there on the other side of the Atlantic. Until Harrow lost the Cardinal Condition Stakes on Thursday at Chelmsford, England, the shortest-priced horses were dominating the preps at a record rate for the points era.

(Obligatory tangent: Why must there be a European trail to the Kentucky Derby? Seriously, it has been going for five years, and the only time the invitation was entertained was in 2018, when Mendelssohn was diverted to the UAE Derby and came here through that door. It is clear English and Irish and French horsemen want no part of a series of turf and synthetic qualifiers for a springtime dirt race in America. So as Bryant Gumbel says, let’s move on. Now … where was I?)

If favorites win five of the last seven prep races between now and the Lexington Stakes (G3) on April 16, they will finish with a record 56 percent strike rate. But even if only two more favorites get to the winner’s circle, it still will be at least 50 percent for the third time in the points era.

So what is going on here?

The suggestion has been made that nine years into the current qualifying system, trainers have figured out how to pick their spots more judiciously. That they are holding back their better colts until the big races that are direct catapults to the Derby. Let’s be honest. No one is building a springtime itinerary at Churchill Downs around the dead of winter in the Jerome and the Lecomte.

But those same horsemen also had this figured out last year, when favorites won only 37 percent of the preps.

Maybe it comes back to the ever-shrinking foal crop. April 1 is way too soon to say the 3-year-old, dirt-male division is thin, but on a parochial basis, maybe it is. When Forbidden Kingdom and Simplification and Epicenter and the other favorites finally come together at Churchill Downs, the class of 2022 may look rich. In their back yards, though, it has been like watching Gonzaga against the rest of the West Coast Conference.

If the admittedly small sample of the points era means anything, perhaps my cynical mindset can be salved by what happened the last two times more than half the favorites won Derby preps. Those two years were 2015 and 2018, the ones that brought us American Pharoah and Justify.

Where was the divisional depth those years? In 2015, Dortmund and Runhappy were the other Eclipse Award finalists. In 2018, Catholic Boy and McKinzie were the other two. They were nice enough horses, but it is hard to make the case they were evidence of richly talented crops of 3-year-olds.

Based merely on the brief history of the Derby points system, how about extrapolating it into a futures bet in Las Vegas? If we presume two more favorites will win prep races, why not take a shot at 13-2 that there will be a Triple Crown winner this year? Those are the odds on offer at Caesars at William Hill.

Let me take a deep breath now. As my friends in Australia would say, this is a long draw of the bow. Besides, if favorites have lost the last seven U.S. preps for the Derby, aren’t they due to break through as soon as this weekend?

It is like having a coin come up heads seven times in a row. Don’t you bet tails the next time?

Well, maybe not. The odds are still only 50-50.