Flatter: In Kentucky Derby, write off Baffert at your own risk

Continued from last week, when cynicism was rationalized here. This week it has become a dual-purpose tool not just to tamp breathless hype but also to suture the wounds from scarred expectations.

That was a really verbose way of saying Bob Baffert, whose colts are 0-for-7 in top-level preps, should not be written off from winning Kentucky Derby 2025.

Since Getaway Car and Cornucopian failed as favorites and Madaket Road joined them in mopping up the back end of superfectas last month, there has been a social-media pile-on. To wit:

“I never understood the hype around Cornucopian. Just because Baffert trains him doesn’t mean he’s good. Clearly he’s not.”

“More Baffert horses that can’t get 10 furlongs in the back of a truck.”

“Wonder if the Baffert crazies are reflecting on their insanity and the 6-1 they took two months ago for a 20-horse race three months later that Barnes hasn’t even qualified for.”

“Has Bob Baffert lost his touch? Seems like every horse outside of California has been flopping.”

“Team Baffert right now for the Kentucky Derby: Cornucopian no, Madaket Road no, Gaming no, Getaway Car no, Citizen Bull yes. Not quite what was expected.”

Let me jump in right there. Anyone who thought Baffert was going to get five horses in the big gate at Churchill Downs was like the proverbial, tree-dwelling simian chucking his solids at passers-by. That last sentence was more florid on first thought.

Welcome to the overreaction that comes every year at this time. It is no different from first-time racegoers who blow everything they have on early races just to have action. That is a life lesson best learned before our second flings. Another sentence that was once more graphic.

This is not just about racing. Recency bias colors the fashionable caprice in all sports.

Smack in the middle of their time collecting Super Bowl rings, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick went 10 years without a championship. They were said to be washed up in their 30s and 50s. Until they weren’t.

When he won the 2001 Masters, Tiger Woods had in his possession the most recently awarded trophy in all four major golf tournaments. The game had fallen prey to his power. Courses were Tiger-proofed out of fear no one could beat him on the biggest stage. Until they could.

During the first week of the new baseball season, we bore witness to the New York Yankees’ 15 home runs in a three-game sweep of Milwaukee. Their new torpedo bats that look like candlepins became all the rage. They even provoked rage about how the ever-rich Yankees had an unfair advantage. Until they didn’t when they lost their next two games to Arizona.

So here we are with Bob Baffert, he of Hall of Fame credentials and six Kentucky Derby victories and his desire to make a triumphant return to Churchill Downs after being banned for three years. He will not, however, have five horses running for the roses, and he never pretended that he would. The only time Baffert ever had more than two horses in the Derby starting gate was 2006, when his trio of Point Determined, Sinister Minister and Bob and John finished off the board. Way off the board.

While Brady and Belichick did not lift a Lombardi from 2005 to 2015, Baffert endured a 2002-2015 drought between War Emblem and American Pharoah. There were three times during those 13 years when he did not even have a Kentucky Derby starter.

Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998, Baffert’s first two Derby winners, lost their final preps beforehand. Indian Charlie actually went off as the 5-2 favorite at Churchill 27 years ago, making his stablemate Real Quiet an early big payday for bettors banking on the other Baffert.

This is not exactly a new phenomenon. Baffert’s six training wins are tied with Ben Jones for the Kentucky Derby record. Four of Jones’s winners during his 1938-1952 reign lost their final preps beforehand. If only X and Bluesky existed back then.

All this underscores what Baffert has said for years about America’s biggest race and the final preps leading to it. They are not easy to win.

Go back 10 years, when American Pharoah came back from a foot bruise that kept him out of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Before he won the Triple Crown, he, too, was part of a Baffert barn considered to be blessed with 3-year-old talent.

American Pharoah won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, Dortmund and One Lucky Dane finished one-two in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Lord Nelson was fourth in the San Felipe (G2). Only Pharoah and Dortmund ran for the roses.

In this era when the points chase can be obsessive, Baffert has held true to his long-held belief that a horse is worthy of America’s biggest race only if he does well in his final prep.

“You want to see them run first or second,” Baffert said in an indelible 2021 quote. “You need to run first or second unless third was a troubled trip.”

The last four Kentucky Derby winners were losers in their final preps, so the writing off of Baffert’s also-rans this spring should come with a warning label.

As for the fallacy that Baffert has had a disappointing year, we might want to wait until a little after 7 p.m. EDT on May 3 before making that pronouncement. Better yet, how about waiting until at least November?

We also might pause before flooring the accelerator and leaving skid marks behind our conclusions about torpedo bats, championship slumps and the depth of a 3-year-old crop.

I vividly remember being at dinner in Baltimore with John Scheinman, the Eclipse Award-winning turf writer, on the eve of the 2015 Preakness. That was the regatta that American Pharoah successfully navigated.

We were grading that sophomore equine class when I asked him, “How many horses does it take to make a deep division?”

Without hesitation, Scheinman said, “Only one.”

Even though I recoiled in disagreement, time has proven him right.

Please remind me, too, of how many horses Baffert needs to win next month’s Kentucky Derby.

Ron Flatter’s column appears Friday mornings at Horse Racing Nation. Comments below and at RonFlatterRacingPod@gmail.com are welcomed, encouraged and may be used in the feedback segment of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which also is posted every Friday.