Flatter: How the Kentucky Derby 2022 bubble got so big

Lexington, Ky.

I am one of those Wordle, Nerdle, Globle, Wardle guys. Geeks, if you will.

Between that and a sleep disorder I carried back after living three years in Australia, the wee hours of the morning have been occupied the past few months not just by insomnia but also Kentucky Derby numbers.

Las Vegas futures. Prep history. Favoritism trends. Pace projections. Final Fractions Theory. Most recently the scenarios to clinch a place in the Derby.

It used to be easy. Win a 50-point prep, and in you go. Finish first or second in one of the major preps in early spring, and the 100 or 40 points earned are your ticket to the Derby.

That really does not add up, though. Just do the math.

If a different horse were to win each of the preps, then up to 15 places in the gate would be taken. Add the runners-up in the big preps, and that could be eight more horses for a potential total of 23. Last time I checked, 23 horses will not fit into Churchill Downs’ 20-horse gate.

It would take at least three horses repeating some form of success somewhere in those preps to avoid trouble. That does not even take into account the one invitation that Japan did not accept directly this year – and the other for Europe that is a complete waste of time. But seriously, what are the odds that 23 different horses would fill in all 23 blanks?

Well, it damn near happened this year. Epicenter, who won the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2), was the only 3-year-old whose name showed up twice in those slots.

Then there was the fact that so many horses got on the Derby trail late. Brad Cox did not have a horse with a single qualifying point until the 100-point preps. Now he may have three Derby starters. And who can forget Taiba and Messier, the two Baffteens who finished 1-2 in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)?

My colleague Ed DeRosa is renowned for his bon mots in our workplace, owned by our boss, and on Twitter, owned by who-knows-who right now. He believes the 40-point threshold still works for the Derby, numbers notwithstanding. As only he could put it, “It’s like overbooking a flight.”

That was his way of saying that my sleepless slaving over the math does not take into account the inevitable attrition that cuts into the Derby field. And he is absolutely right.

We already witnessed the defection of Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway last weekend. The Steve Asmussen camp still has not committed to running Morello in the Derby. And who knows what else might happen between now and May 7?

But we have not seen the Derby this “overbooked” before. One of the reasons is the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) only recently went from a minor prep, which was worth just 20 points for a win, to a major one, which now is worth 100 and 40 for finishing first and second. Two more spots became two more horses.

The reason was obvious. Churchill Downs Inc. bought the race’s host track, Turfway Park, 2 1/2 years ago. It was perfectly understandable that the company would raise the profile of a race it suddenly owned. Look, Churchill just bought a poker room last month in New Hampshire. Don’t be surprised if the winner of a Texas Hold ’em tournament gets a spot in the Derby gate.

But back to the overbooking theory. It may yet come true, but it makes for a nervous wait. Cox was not about to endure it. That was why he entered Tawny Port, currently on the bubble in Derby qualifying, in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes. In spite of a purse doubled since last year to $400,000, the Keeneland race still is a minor prep that is the modern-day equivalent of the old Derby Trial. Use it to top up a horse’s experience – or his point total. In this case, a top four finish would cure bubble-itis.

With all this in mind, there is something I heard when I was at Gulfstream Park early this month that continues to ring in my ears. Charge It had just finished second to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby (G1), picking up his 40 points less than three months after he made his racing debut.

“I think he earned enough points and showed he’s good enough now,” his trainer Todd Pletcher said.

“I think he earned enough points.” Echo, echo, echo.

It is an earworm now, like the song that will not get out of your head. “It’s Friday, Friday. Gotta get down on Friday.” See? I just planted one on you.

When Pletcher said “earned enough points,” I cringed, because I already had done the math, something that most of my fellow journalistic geezers did not do while sitting in the trainers lounge that had been converted into a media work center. Remember the two old guys in the balcony on “The Muppet Show”? You don’t? Well, never mind.

If there is no further attrition – a big “if” – and if either Ethereal Road or In Due Time wins the Lexington, and if Tawny Port finishes in the top four Saturday, then Charge It would be out.

Put aside math and earworms and things that trainers say. I keep coming back now to Mandy Pope, who owns Charge It.

For the millions of dollars’ worth of broodmares who have been the foundation of her breeding business, Pope has had only one starter in the Kentucky Derby. Mylute, a gelding she owned with Texas oilman Paul Buhlman, finished fifth in 2013.

Four months later Pope bought I’ll Take Charge, a yearling filly by Indian Charlie, for $2.2 million. That baby became a mama in 2018 when she foaled a Medaglia d’Oro filly, Charging Lady, who only just got to the races this week at Keeneland.

Then came Charge It, a Tapit colt and another late bloomer who could be Pope’s first homegrown Derby starter. Maybe.

For now this story depends on the results of the Lexington Stakes. Perhaps Pope will be quietly rooting against Ethereal Road and In Due Time on Saturday. If both fail to win, then Charge It really will have “earned enough points.”

Or maybe another passenger does not show up for that May 7 flight out of the Louisville starting gate that is as big as a jet plane.

In the meantime, has anyone invented Derbyle yet?