Flatter: Bob Baffert’s Kentucky Derby story is not over yet

Who had March 24 in the pool? 

There could not have been any shortage of side bets on when Bob Baffert was going to start sprinkling his collection of 3-year-old talent around other barns to make the eligible for a Kentucky Derby from which he has been banned.

Every time I was asked about it, about why it had not happened yet, I tried to preach patience. Football fans in Detroit and baseball fans in Cleveland have been hearing that advice for generations.

Baffert has long proselytized about putting all his qualifying eggs into the basket of major, 100-point preps. If his horses did not finish in the top two or a troubled third in one of the late-March, early-April derbies, memorials, stakes or steaks, he said they did not merit being in the Derby.

Taking that practice one step further, I went so far as to make a bet that Baffert would have a horse in Kentucky Derby 2022 in his name. Then came Thursday’s equivalent of a dispersal draft. That bet does not look so good now.

Neither do bets against Messier. Or on him. In Las Vegas he looks underlaid now at 7-1. Yet that will look like good value compared with the price he commands next week when he doubtlessly makes his first appearance in the last Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool.

Anyone with a crystal ball who saw March 24 coming might have pounced on Messier last October, when he opened in Las Vegas at 75-1. He was quickly cut to 50-1. By Thanksgiving he was 16-1.

When he lost by a length to Slow Down Andy last December at Los Alamitos, Messier went on the drift in Las Vegas. Right before he made his 3-year-old debut, he was as long as 65-1. Then he won at Santa Anita, and he has not been longer than 15-1 since.

Horseplayers playing Messier clearly were playing the horse, not the human. Which brings us to Thursday’s lively if enigmatic comments from Tom Ryan. He is the man at the helm of SF Racing, the lead owner of all the horses moved by Baffert.

Yes, Ryan said, by Baffert.

“We salute Bob for making the tough but necessary decision that will allow them to prove themselves as top talents in racing this year.”

RELATED: Baffert, Ryan talk about transfer of Derby hopefuls.

That statement from Ryan throbbed from a news release that came from a D.C. public-relations company acting on Baffert’s behalf. The trainer told the owner what to do? Really? Is this horse racing’s version of the movie “Dave”? Are we really to believe the people who paid nearly $2.3 million for these horses did not make the call?

A skeptical Tweep took that to the next step and asked, “Why didn’t anyone ask Ryan why they chose Yakteen?”

Ryan wasted little time – six minutes, to be exact – to Tweet back. “Tim is an excellent horseman with extensive experience at an elite level,” he wrote. “We are very confident we are putting out (sic) trust in the right barn.”

The Twittersphere swooped in to suggest names of other “excellent horsemen” like Hall of Famers Steve Asmussen and Bill Mott, both of whom have trained graded-stakes winners for partnerships involving SF Racing.

To be fair, it is not like Yakteen is without bona fides. His résumé includes three Grade 1 victories. Isn’t that the same number Art Sherman had before California Chrome came along? What’s more, remind me how many asterisk-free Kentucky Derby victories Asmussen and Mott have.

Now let’s step back and take a deep breath.

All this to-ing and fro-ing is either jaundiced, which is perfect for Twitter, or disingenuous, which is perfect for spinmeisters. Sometimes it is both.

Did anyone really think an announcement of the horses’ transfer was going to be anything other than a united declaration by SF Racing, et al., and Baffert, et attorneys.

Was anyone of the opinion that Messier and his stablemates were going to the barn of a Baffert enemy? Yeah, right. Send them to Richard Baltas, who came to blows with Yakteen nearly a year ago over something he said about Yakteen’s old boss.

Frankly, does it really matter who made the call to move the horses? Actually, it might.

Yes, it was odd that the lead owner credited the trainer, technically his employee, for deciding to move the horses, especially when Ryan said all winter that it was his call to make.

Maybe Ryan’s message Thursday paid lip service to tales of a poison pill that supposedly was baked into the contracts Baffert has with owners like the SF Racing group. We heard of at least one partner claiming Baffert might have been entitled to a handsome payment if he did not bless any transfer before the Derby.

Motives and statements notwithstanding, this story is not over yet. Baffert has legal cards he can play in higher courts, not to mention least two or three more horses – Newgrange, Pinehurst and maybe even Taiba – who still could be Derby prep candidates for other trainers.

Maybe I should hedge on my side bet that Baffert still gets in the Derby. Or maybe I should just double down. Let me know if there is a Geppetto prop in Las Vegas.