Flatter: Are big fields for Ky. Derby preps a surprise?

By Ron Flatter
Photo: Ryan Lasek/ Eclipse Sportswire

Pick a topic. Any topic. Because I could not. 

Numbers of encouragement. Saturday’s four Kentucky Derby 2023 preps have a total of 46 horses in the main draws with three also-eligibles. Between 2020 and 2022, the same races had combined fields of 36, 40 and 40. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who has Eclipse Award winner Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and front-running long shot Recruiter in the Gotham (G3), said, “I’m not surprised that it’s large fields in a lot of them.” But the 10 entrants in the San Felipe (G2) caught him off guard. “The California race did surprise me a little bit,” he said on my podcast this week. “We haven’t seen too many field sizes like that there in 3-year-old preps. It’s definitely the time of year where it’s time to fish or cut bait.” Between the rising urgency of the Derby trail and the fat purses in Kentucky that have helped Turfway Park all winter, the betting public will be the beneficiary. At least the betting public who can crack the code on who will win these races.

Chalk burn or no chalk burn. Long shots Angel of Empire at 13-1 and Confidence Game at 18-1 won the first two win-and-you’re-in Derby preps. So far in the 2022-23 points races in the U.S., Europe and Japan, favorites have won only 31.0 percent of the time. If that trend holds, it would be the second worst season for chalk since the Derby points system got started 10 years ago. The worst was 2013-14, when only 29.4 percent of the post-time favorites won in the buildup to California Chrome’s victory in Kentucky. Favorites won more than half the preps in 2014-15 and 2017-18. American Pharoah and Justify punctuated those years with Triple Crowns.

From the Bayou to the desert. The most prominent opponent and proponent of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act have their most high-profile events of the year next week. The National Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association holds its annual conference in New Orleans, and then the National Thoroughbred Racing Association hosts the National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. HISA might not get much of an airing among the contest gamblers in Nevada, but it sure will get the once-over early in the week from the NHBPA. Personally, I will be most curious about the Tuesday panel outlining alternatives to HISA. While I agree with the horsemen’s group that the HISA rollout has been clumsy at best and inexcusably opaque at worst, I also think the NHBPA should feel compelled to come up with a better idea to fix what ails our game.

The answer to all your questions … There was a thoughtful Tweet posted Thursday morning. That alone would be news. To the point, it was written by Craig Bernick, presumably the breeder-owner from Florida. Presumably, because there was no blue check mark, as if that means anything anymore on Twitter. “Not perfect,” the post said, “but to me, the best way to fix racing regulation (is) a backside dispensary with full vet disclosure and freezing of post-race samples. Feed, hay and medication all sourced through approved suppliers. Anything but allowed substances in a post-race sample is a positive.” That all sounds fine and good and maybe even overdue. One question. Who is going to pay for it?

… is money. Between the legal fights that have kept attorneys on the clock and the inability to collect fees from state regulators because of the delay in starting its medication-program, HISA has run into money trouble. So say two insiders who would know. Not that it is in danger of financial collapse, but if its current business model survives, it stands to reason the proverbial hat will have to be passed to collect more money from racing commissions around the country. Then it is a matter of who really will absorb the added cost. If it comes down to owners, breeders and horseplayers, why do I fear it will be the latter? After all, HISA is a government program.

Quantifying the last click. There was another inspired Tweet this week. It came from Marshall Gramm, the economics professor from Tennessee who owns and plays horses and often generates some eyebrow-raising data. He put together a chart showing how much the win odds moved in that last click at the start of races in the U.S. and Canada in the last 16 months. The tracks that had the smallest changes? Saratoga, Belmont Park and Aqueduct. And it was not even close. One big factor had to be the New York Racing Association’s move in the summer of 2021 to cut off computer players three minutes before post time. What NYRA lost in business, it gained in credibility on the toteboard. Gulfstream Park, Del Mar, Churchill Downs, Woodbine and Golden Gate Fields were clustered fourth through eighth, but they were open lengths behind the New York Racing Association. The bottom five tracks were Will Rogers Downs, Prairie Meadows, Mountaineer, Arizona Downs and, 53rd and last, Arapahoe Park, all with relatively small handles. While it is true that big tracks attracting big pools are more likely to be immune from last swings in the odds, Gramm’s research was important food for thought for everyone from racetrack managers to $2 bettors.

Unintended consequences. Churchill Downs’ arbitrary Tuesday deadline this week forced owners to move their 3-year-olds out of Bob Baffert’s barn if they wanted to be eligible for the Kentucky Derby. Those moves may create an anomaly in futures betting. As oddsmaker Paul Bach of Caesars Sportsbook said 1 1/2 years ago, “I tend to have Baffert horses lower, because they always get played off the board regardless of odds.” Now that Cave Rock and Faustin already are out of the mix, what will become of the money that might have been bet on them in the next few weeks? It could go to other horses, but chances are it will just disappear. The most significant culling of the futures herd usually does not start for another two or three weeks. If it happens sooner, value will be harder to find, especially for players looking to bet large chunks of bankroll, grab big odds now for a few Derby starters and then hedge against them on race day. With Tuesday’s deadline and the thinning of the Baffert, or Bafteen, candidates, that ship might have sailed.

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