Flatter: A point must be made about Kentucky Derby qualifying

Disarm was not supposed to need a top-three finish Saturday in the Grade 3, Lexington Stakes. After his runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), he already should have had his spot in Kentucky Derby 2023, right?

Mandarin Hero, a quarter of a world from his home in Japan, is waiting around in the stable area at Santa Anita. There is plenty of room for him in the quarantine barn at Churchill Downs. But even though he placed a gallant second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), his plans for May are very much up in the air.

Major Dude, who broke his maiden on Monmouth Park’s main track, could have been primed for a return to dirt in the Derby after his second-place finish on the Turfway Park Tapeta in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Instead, his next stop is uncertain.

Maiden winner King Russell, the 58-1 surprise who finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), already would have punched his ticket for Louisville. But not this year.

It used to be that the 40 points that came with finishing second in a major prep were the equivalent of an automatic invitation to race in the Derby. The math does not work that way anymore.

That was signaled in September, when Churchill Downs decreed it would expand its points system to reward the top five horses in each prep rather than the top four. Point values also were raised for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and five mid-winter prep races.

“The expansion of points awarded in qualifying races has been implemented to grow Derby fever for more horses and ownership groups, which could potentially increase field size in Kentucky Derby championship series races in advance of the Derby,” Churchill Downs management said in a news release late last summer.

That goal was achieved in the short term. The 15 preps in the championship series averaged 11.0 starters vs. 9.9 last year. Nine of those races had bigger fields in 2023 than they did in 2022.

There was, however, another stated goal with the expansion of the points system. As Churchill Downs vice president Mike Ziegler put it, “We believe these modifications adhere to and amplify our goal of assembling the finest group of 3-year-olds.”

Was that mission really accomplished? Instead of the runners-up from four major preps, the current field includes Reincarnate, who was beaten by King Russell in the Arkansas Derby, and Jace’s Road, who is on the qualifying bubble even though he finished behind Disarm in the Blue Grass. Sun Thunder and Blazing Sevens clinched their Derby berths despite coming in third and fourth in the Blue Grass.

It had to be an unintended consequence that third-place finishes, now worth 50 percent more than they were last year, were linchpins this first time down the newly paved Derby trail.

Back to Sun Thunder, whom Kenny McPeek ran in two major preps in two weeks. He benefited from the doubling of the value of fourth place, which was where he finished in the Blue Grass, and the creation of fifth-place points, which he earned in the Louisiana Derby.

There was a fair amount of grousing on Twitter after it became evident Mandarin Hero might not make it into the Kentucky Derby. His transoceanic journey and the appetizing idea that he could help Derma Sotogake and Continuar deliver Japan an unprecedented performance in America’s biggest race no doubt contributed to the disapproval.

That, however, was just another form of red-boarding. There was no such passion about Disarm, even though he represents the only chance Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has of getting into the Derby and, at least this year, checking off the last important box on his career bucket list.

Churchill Downs’ desire to stoke interest in the qualifying races for the Derby was understandable. Consider the overvaluing of third-place finishes to be an error of aggression. Such missteps are more forgivable than errors of omission, such as ignoring the reality that horses from the Remington Springboard Mile, the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and the UAE Derby (G2) have not come within sniffing distance of any rose garlands. Sorry, Derma Sotogake and Continuar fans. That is a plain and simple fact.

The solution might be as simple as changing the rewards for major preps from 100-40-30-20-10 to 100-40-20-10-5. Just a tweak, right? There is no sense in throwing out a system that, in the main, has provided a decade-long improvement over the graded-stakes earnings that used to determine the 20-horse Derby field. That left the Kentucky Derby vulnerable to being bought by well-heeled preps like, well, the UAE Derby.

My own adjustment that I have long advocated would be to disallow maidens from getting into a fully subscribed running of the Derby. Since the points system kicked in 10 years ago, Trojan Nation, Sonneteer and Bodexpress came to Kentucky winless and left with nothing better than a 13th-place finish. As wonderful as it may sound to have a horse break its maiden by winning the biggest classic of them all, the Derby’s credibility would be sullied.

The same thing may happen if one of the horses who would have been in the Derby under last year’s system not only gets left out this year but goes on to win the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes. Or both.

Maybe four or five horses currently ranked in the top 19 drop out. Attrition is inevitable this time of year, right? It just should not be the necessary evil to meet that goal of “assembling the finest group of 3-year-olds.”

And maybe Disarm gets his top-three finish Saturday in the Lexington. And then he goes on to pull off the upset in the Derby. And Asmussen gets that elusive trophy.

Too good a story to be true, right? Probably. Honestly, a great Derby story happens only once every 52 or 53 weeks.